Hunting down tax dodgers with science, not guesswork

The government says it closed the financial year with a primary budget surplus of around Rs3.6 trillion. This is the third year in a row that the government has managed this feat. On paper, this looks like good news. It shows fiscal discipline and helps Pakistan meet its IMF targets. But a closer look tells a different story, one that ordinary citizens are living through every day. The surplus was not built on stronger tax collection. The Federal Board of Revenue actually missed its target by nearly Rs1 trillion. Instead, the government leaned heavily on the petroleum levy. Collections from this single source jumped by 28 per cent and crossed Rs1.567 trillion. This levy is charged at Rs80 per litre on petrol and diesel. It hits every citizen directly, from the farmer running a tube well to the daily wage worker commuting to a factory. This is the real problem. A government struggling to widen its tax net is instead squeezing more money out of fuel prices. Every rupee added to the petroleum levy pushes up transport costs. It raises the price of food, medicine and almost everything else that must be moved from one place to another. This is exactly why inflation continues to bite ordinary households, even as officials celebrate a fiscal surplus in press releases. The government now plans to collect Rs1.7 trillion through this levy in the current year. That means more pressure on fuel prices is coming. A surplus achieved through petroleum taxes instead of genuine reform is not a lasting solution. It only shifts the burden onto people who are already struggling with high prices. Pakistan does not need more levies. It needs real tax reform that brings undertaxed sectors into the net, so ordinary citizens are not made to carry the weight of fiscal discipline alone.

Two tribal elders lost their lives on Sunday in Lower South Waziristan. Gunmen shot Haji Gul and Malik Badshah while they travelled from Gul Kach to Zarmilan. Both men belonged to the Suleman Khel tribe. Police say the attackers escaped after the shooting. This is not an isolated case. It is part of a pattern that the state cannot keep ignoring. Tribal elders play a special role in this region. They settle disputes through jirgas. They stop small conflicts from becoming big ones. They keep peace between families and tribes. When someone kills these elders, they are not just killing individuals. They are killing the peace process itself. The list of victims keeps growing. In May, militants killed Malik Tariq Wazir in a bomb blast in Wana. He was a respected elder of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe. He had already survived an abduction in December 2024. He came back and kept working for peace. Then a bomb ended his life near a busy market. In June, gunmen killed two sons of another elder, Malik Jamil Wazir, in the same area. These killings send a clear message. Anyone who works for peace in Waziristan becomes a target. Over the past 18 months, Lower South Waziristan has seen more targeted killings, bomb attacks, kidnappings and extortion. Attacks on police and security forces have also increased. The people who suffer the most are ordinary tribesmen and the elders who try to protect them. Meanwhile, security forces report success in Balochistan. Under Operation Rad-ul-Fitna-3, forces killed 15 militants in areas including Mastung, Bolan, Washuk, Awaran, Sibi, Khuzdar, Harnai and Noshki. They also recovered weapons and ammunition. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi praised the forces for these operations. These operations matter. They weaken militant networks. But military action alone cannot solve the deeper problem. The government needs a two-part plan. First, it must continue operations against armed militants. Second, and just as important, it must protect the peace-loving elders and common citizens who become easy targets. Right now, the second part is missing. Elders like Malik Tariq Wazir and Malik Jamil Wazir did not carry weapons. They carried influence and trust. That made them vulnerable, not safe. Security forces should extend protection to tribal jirga members, especially those who have received threats. Police in Waziristan need better resources to investigate these killings quickly and to make arrests, not just launch preliminary cases that go nowhere. Local communities need faster response times when gunmen attack. Elders who mediate disputes deserve the same level of security attention as government officials, because they are doing work that keeps the state’s own peace efforts alive. Killing militants is one battle. Protecting the elders and common people who choose peace over violence in Waziristan is another. The government must treat both as equally urgent. If peace-loving voices keep dying in silence, fewer people will dare to raise those voices at all.

Students in Pakistan have every right to be angry. They followed the rules, sat their exams honestly, and now they face a system that seems slow to answer basic questions. The Cambridge paper leak controversy should have been settled months ago. Instead, students are heading to protest outside the IBCC office in Islamabad because meetings keep getting postponed and answers keep getting delayed. The new forensic report from the National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency makes this more urgent, not less. Investigators found no signs that the leaked video files were edited or faked. That is a serious finding. It means the leaks were likely real, even though the report could not say who was behind them. When such evidence exists, students deserve a clear response, not silence before results and vague promises after. Cambridge’s decision to pull out of a key meeting just before results were announced sends the wrong message. It looks like an attempt to avoid difficult questions rather than face them. Postponing accountability until after grades are released only deepens mistrust among students, parents and teachers. The core issue is fairness. Even if leaked material reached only a small number of students, those students may have gained an unfair advantage. Honest students who worked hard without any early access to questions could end up disadvantaged. This is not a small technical matter. It affects university admissions and futures. Schools and education authorities also share blame. Many stayed quiet when the leaks were first reported and only spoke up once public pressure grew. That is not good enough. Cambridge, IBCC and the government must treat this seriously. Students are not asking for favours. They are asking for transparency, fairness and a guarantee that this will not happen again.

The Punjab government has set the new wheat release price at Rs3,800 per maund. This decision raises a serious question. Why is the province paying more now than it paid to its own farmers. Earlier this year, wheat growers across Punjab sold their crop at rates far lower than Rs3,800 per maund. Many farmers struggled to cover their basic costs. Fertiliser, diesel, and labour prices kept rising, but the government did not offer a fair price at harvest time. Now, months later, the same government is buying wheat from PASSCO at Rs4,150 per maund. This is imported wheat, bought at a much higher cost than what local farmers received. This gap sends a troubling message to the farming community. It tells them that growing wheat at home is less valuable than buying it from abroad. A farmer who works through the heat, spends money on seeds and water, and waits months for the harvest ends up earning less than what the state later pays for imported grain. This is not fair, and it is not sustainable. If this pattern continues, farmers may simply lose interest in wheat cultivation. Punjab is the backbone of Pakistan’s wheat production. If growers shift to other crops or leave farming altogether, the country could face a bigger crisis in the coming years. Food security cannot depend on imports alone. The federal and provincial governments must rethink this approach. Farmers need a support price that reflects their real costs and effort, announced before sowing season begins, not after imports have already been arranged. Punjab also needs to invest in storage and procurement systems so that local wheat is bought and stored efficiently, without forcing the province to rely on costlier imported stock. Protecting the price of roti for consumers is important. But that protection should not come at the cost of the farmer who grows the wheat in the first place.

Arshad Nadeem remains one of the finest athletes Pakistan has ever produced, and one disappointing outing in Glasgow cannot erase that fact. His early exit from the Commonwealth Games javelin event has understandably worried fans, but this is a moment for support, not despair. Every great athlete faces setbacks. What matters is how they respond. Former coach Fayyaz Hussain Bukhari has raised a valid point about fitness levels ahead of the Glasgow event. He noted that Nadeem did not appear to have the same intensity he showed during earlier training sessions under his guidance. Bukhari, who worked closely with Nadeem for eight years and helped him reach the Tokyo Olympics, believes physical preparation is the foundation of success in any sport. He also called for regular fitness testing before athletes compete internationally, a suggestion authorities should take seriously. It is worth remembering that Nadeem has already given Pakistan its proudest sporting moment. His gold medal throw of 92.97 metres at the Paris Olympics in 2024 remains a historic achievement that will be remembered for generations. A single poor performance in Glasgow does not undo that legacy. Sport, by nature, involves highs and lows, and no athlete performs at their peak every single time. Bukhari believes Nadeem does not need another extraordinary throw to prove himself. He has already shown the world what he is capable of. What he needs now is to refocus, correct small mistakes and rebuild his mindset. This is completely achievable for an athlete of his caliber. Questions raised about coordination between Nadeem, his current coach Salman Butt and the Athletics Federation of Pakistan deserve honest attention. Stronger cooperation between all parties can only help Nadeem perform better on the international stage. This is the time for Pakistan to stand behind Arshad Nadeem, not criticize him. Defeat is part of every sportsperson’s journey, and true champions are defined by how they bounce back. 

The Punjab Revenue Authority has taken a step that deserves praise. It has banned handwritten and manual receipts for hotels, restaurants, coffee shops and marriage halls. These businesses must now use the Electronic Invoice Management System, known as EIMS, to issue receipts. This is a small change on paper, but it can bring a big shift in how Punjab collects tax. For years, many businesses in Punjab have used handwritten slips or given no receipt at all. This made it easy to hide real sales. A shop could tell the tax authority one number and keep the true earnings elsewhere. Customers rarely questioned this, since a handwritten slip looked normal. This habit cost the province huge amounts of tax revenue every year. The new rule closes this gap. Every sale through EIMS gets recorded electronically. This makes it much harder for a business to underreport what it earns. The PRA has also set firm penalties. Businesses that ignore the rule can face fines between four hundred thousand and one million rupees. Repeat offenders risk having their premises sealed for up to a month. These penalties send a clear message that documentation is no longer optional. This move fits into a wider global pattern. Countries that have moved to digital invoicing have generally seen tax collection improve. Pakistan has struggled for decades with a low tax to GDP ratio, and informal cash transactions are one major reason. Punjab’s decision to enforce digital receipts is a practical, low cost way to fix part of this problem. However, this step should be the beginning, not the end. Digital receipts alone do not close every loophole. A business can still issue a proper digital receipt while asking the customer to pay in cash outside the system. The real solution is to make digital payments themselves mandatory alongside digital receipts. If customers are required to pay through cards, mobile wallets or bank transfers, then every transaction leaves a financial trail that is far harder to manipulate. This is simply how modern economies function. From small cafes to large retail chains, digital payments have become the norm across much of the world. Pakistan is lagging behind, and Punjab has an opportunity to lead the way. Encouraging or eventually requiring digital transactions would also benefit ordinary consumers, who would gain better protection through verified records of what they paid and for what. The Punjab government has taken a sensible first step. The next step should be mandatory digital transactions, not just mandatory digital receipts.