Spider-Man: Brand New Day Could Be Second Movie Ever to Accomplish This Box Office Feat

Big-budget studio tentpoles had a rough couple of months to start the summer moviegoing season, with titles like The Mandalorian and Grogu, Masters of the Universe, Supergirl, and Moana underperforming to various degrees. Theaters got a massive shot in the arm last weekend when Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey debuted with a record-breaking haul. As moviegoers keep flocking to the multiplex to see Nolan’s acclaimed fantasy epic, the good times are set to continue next weekend when Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens. The web head has always been one of the most reliable box office draws, and his latest adventure is no exception. Based on the latest tracking, it could become only the second movie in history to accomplish an incredible feat.

According to Global Box Office on X, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is now projected to earn between $260-300 million domestically in its opening weekend. A “massive spike” in pre-sales “since last weekend” was cited as the main reason. If the film hits the high end of that estimate, it would become just the second film ever to open with $300+ million in North America. The first, unsurprisingly, was Avengers: Endgame with $357.1 million. To see how even the low end of Brand New Day‘s projections would stack up against the biggest openings of all time, check out the table below:

What Brand New Day‘s Massive Opening Weekend Would Mean for Marvel Studios

It’s important to keep in mind that box office projections are not an exact science. Especially in the post-pandemic landscape, when moviegoing habits have changed drastically thanks to the rise of streaming services, it can be tricky to predict how an individual movie is going to perform. There are always a lot of factors at play, and there are plenty of examples of films that either surpassed estimates or failed to meet them. As an example, initial projections for The Odyssey pointed to a domestic opening between $85-100 million, and it actually made $123.5 million. In contrast, Supergirl underperformed following soft projections.

All that said, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is poised to deliver perhaps the biggest box office opening of the year. Earlier projections that came out a couple of weeks ago pointed to a debut between $180-190 million domestically, which would easily surpass Toy Story 5 ($159.6 million). After an uneven 2025 at the multiplex, this would be a very welcome development for Marvel Studios. The underwhelming performances of projects like Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts* served as further evidence that the superhero movie bubble had burst, but Brand New Day is living proof that comic book movies can still sell. At one point, domestic pre-sales stood at $40 million, a figure higher than Supergirl‘s opening weekend.

Of course, it has to be said that Spider-Man is a unique case in the superhero movie landscape. He is Marvel’s most popular character and any film starring him is going to be a massive box office hit. Should Brand New Day cross $300 million domestically in one weekend, it wouldn’t necessarily negate all of the discourse surrounding the long-term viability of the superhero genre as a whole. Characters like Spider-Man and Batman are immune to shifting box office trends because they will always have appeal among general audiences. If anything, it highlights that the way forward could be prioritizing the A-list properties that are safer box office bets. There’s a reason why the X-Men are going to be a main focus of Marvel’s next saga. With a more streamlined continuity after Secret Wars and a slowdown in output, banking on the biggest names makes sense. Films about the B- and C-list characters aren’t a guarantee anymore.

The Brand New Day projections also illustrate why Sony is very interested in continuing its lucrative partnership with Disney/Marvel. No future live-action Spider-Man movies have been officially announced yet, but producer Amy Pascal wants to keep Brand New Day director Destin Daniel Cretton in the franchise and Kevin Feige has discussed plans to eventually introduce a live-action Miles Morales. The overarching superhero movie landscape may be changing, but Spider-Man is a constant and will continue to have a large presence in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

What do you think? Leave a comment below and join the conversation now in the ComicBook Forum!