Spider-Man: Brand New Day Could Top a Box Office Record That Was Once Thought Unbreakable
As the old saying goes, records are made to be broken, but there are some that seem insurmountable on paper. In terms of all-time box office history, Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ lifetime domestic gross record looked untouchable. Released to unparalleled hype and anticipation in December 2015, the long-awaited legacy sequel soared to the top of the charts by posting a whopping $936.6 million just in the United States. For over a decade, that record stood the test of time, with no real challenger coming close. Not even Avengers: Endgame, which grossed $858.3 million domestically, posed much of a threat. If Endgame couldn’t do it, it would have been reasonable to assume that no movie could. But now, it’s becoming more likely Spider-Man: Brand New Day will pull it off.
According to Global Box Office on X, Brand New Day is on pace to become the first movie in history to gross $1 billion domestically, which would shatter The Force Awakens‘ all-time record. Right now, Brand New Day is outpacing The Force Awakens by $115+ million. Additionally, Brand New Day is now the fourth-highest-grossing superhero movie of all time with $1.67 billion, behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home, Avengers: Infinity War, and Endgame.
Why The Force Awakens‘ Record Was Deemed Unbreakable (and Why Spider-Man Can Break It)
When recapping The Force Awakens‘ historic box office run earlier this year, I claimed that the film’s all-time domestic record may never be broken. At the time, that sentiment seemed reasonable; nothing truly compared to the buzz and excitement surrounding the release of the first new Star Wars film in 10 years. Arguably the most beloved movie franchise in history was coming back after Disney’s surprise acquisition of Lucasfilm, telling the story fans had dreamed about for decades. Then there was the brilliant marketing campaign that united generations of moviegoers. A case can be made that Star Wars’ Disney era peaked after the last Force Awakens trailer released, as everyone was just enthused about there being more Star Wars.
The Force Awakens also came out during a very different era for the entertainment industry. The COVID-19 pandemic forever altered moviegoing habits, and theatrical windows became shorter. There have obviously been plenty of massive box office hits in the post-pandemic years, but those factors made the notion of something approaching The Force Awakens‘ numbers (which relied heavily on repeat viewings from enthusiastic fans) unlikely. Right now, The Force Awakens is the only movie ever to make $900+ million domestically. Spider-Man: No Way Home, which had the selling point of seeing legacy Spider-Man actors returning to iconic roles after several years, finished with $814.8 million.
When a franchise installment shatters box office records, as No Way Home did, it’s expected the follow-up won’t be as big of a hit. Posting those kinds of record-breaking numbers typically isn’t sustainable; The Last Jedi grossed $620.1 million, around $316.5 million less than The Force Awakens. However, Brand New Day has been far exceeding even the most optimistic box office projections. One reason why is the fact that it’s been five years since the last live-action Spider-Man movie. While not as large as the gap between Revenge of the Sith and The Force Awakens, fans still had plenty of time to miss Tom Holland’s Peter Parker and were eager to see him back on the big screen — particularly after No Way Home‘s emotional ending left viewers wanting more after resetting Spider-Man’s status quo.
And similar to The Force Awakens, Brand New Day is benefitting from a combination of strong word of mouth and weak box office competition. Reviews from fans and critics alike have been very positive, with many people praising Brand New Day‘s grounded, emotional story and practical filmmaking approach. People were excited to see a Spider-Man movie tell a narrative that focused on Peter Parker’s personal struggles, harkening back to the Sam Raimi era (Brand New Day has drawn comparisons to Spider-Man 2, still one of the best Marvel movies ever made). As for the competition, it’s true that Brand New Day has been sharing screens with The Odyssey, another $1 billion hit. But there was a two-week buffer between those movies’ respective releases, so they weren’t going directly head to head with each other. Brand New Day is taking advantage of a relatively soft August schedule, and it’ll be interesting to see how high it goes.
