Spider-Man: Brand New Day Projected to Outgross Every 2025 MCU Movie In One Weekend
The summer movie season delivered some unexpected results this year. For the first part of the season, indie horror movies like Obsession and Backrooms ruled the multiplex as most of the traditional tentpole offerings faltered to various degrees. In July, things reverted back to “normal” as the big-budget fare reasserted itself. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey broke multiple records in its debut and is on track to gross over $1 billion globally. Now, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is taking over theaters by posting massive numbers of its own. In one day, it broke a couple of records of its own, and it’s already surpassed Marvel’s entire slate from last year.
According to Deadline, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is currently projected to earn $325 million domestically in its opening weekend. There is still a chance it could top Avengers: Endgame‘s record for the biggest opening of all time. Based on the latest estimates, Brand New Day has secured at least the second-biggest debut ever, far exceeding Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1 million). What’s even more outrageous is that Brand New Day has already outgrossed all three of 2025’s MCU movies:
| Movie | Domestic Box Office |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | $325 million (opening weekend estimate) |
| The Fantastic Four: First Steps | $274.2 million |
| Captain America: Brave New World | $200.5 million |
| Thunderbolts* | $190.2 million |
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Illustrates Why Marvel is Changing Its Movie Strategy
Some comic book movie fans will look at Brand New Day‘s incredible box office performance and consider it proof that the superhero fatigue narrative is overblown. How could superhero fatigue be a real thing in 2026 if a superhero movie is shattering box office records left and right? However, there’s some nuance to this conversation that’s important to keep in mind. A-list characters (and Spider-Man is pretty clearly at the top of the superhero A-list) are obviously still considerable box office draws. It’s no coincidence that last year’s highest-grossing superhero movie was Superman. These A-listers are immune to shifting box office trends because they have widespread appeal and global fan bases that transcend the target demographic. A Spider-Man movie is going to break the bank in any era because the character is a pop culture icon.
Spider-Man and Superman continue to sell tickets. Where we’ve seen the biggest difference is movies based on the B- and C-list characters. During the superhero movie boom of the 2010s, Aquaman was capable of headlining a $1 billion blockbuster over Christmas, and the obscure Guardians of the Galaxy became household names. These films were about as safe of a box office lock as possible. In the post-pandemic landscape, things have changed. Movies like The Marvels and Supergirl bombed at the box office, posting incredibly low numbers that would have been unfathomable a decade ago. General audiences have become more selective about which superhero projects they come out in full force to see. Unless it’s a main IP casual viewers are familiar with, there’s no guarantee it will be commercially successful.
To their credit, Marvel seems to be aware that the landscape has changed and they’re making an effort to adapt. Not only is the studio scaling back on output (minimizing the number of annual releases after years of oversaturating the marketplace), they seem to be making a point to spotlight the properties that have the strongest box office potential. It’s telling that at this year’s San Diego Comic-Con, the two new movies officially announced were Ghost Rider (headlined by fan favorite Ryan Gosling, star of the blockbuster sci-fi hit Project Hail Mary) and Black Panther 3 (the latest installment in a record-breaking series). Marvel is also putting together the cast for their X-Men reboot, bringing one of the company’s most popular superhero teams back to the big screen. All of these projects should do well in theaters.
And Spider-Man isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Spider-Man 5 starring Tom Holland hasn’t been confirmed yet, but after these gargantuan box office numbers, that film is all but a guarantee to happen at some point in the near future. Holland has been very open discussing his Spider-Man future, expressing hope to one day be a mentor figure to the MCU’s Miles Morales (mirroring what Robert Downey Jr. was for him when he first joined the franchise). It remains to be seen if Spider-Man will return in Avengers: Doomsday or Secret Wars, but the web head will definitely be one of the main cogs of the MCU in the next saga.
