single digit inflation

Single digit inflation and real relief

The inflation rate has finally slipped back into single digits, and this is genuinely good news. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics has confirmed that annual inflation fell to 9.2 percent in July 2026, down from 11.1 percent in June. After three straight months of double-digit readings in April, May and June, this drop deserves to be welcomed. It signals that the aggressive monetary tightening and stabilisation measures of the past year are finally showing results. Businesses that had been struggling with unpredictable input costs can now plan with slightly more confidence, and policymakers at the State Bank will have room to consider further easing of interest rates.

But the government must resist the temptation to treat this number as a victory lap. A single month of improved statistics does not undo years of erosion in ordinary people’s purchasing power. For the average household in Lahore, Karachi or Peshawar, a fall from 11.1 percent to 9.2 percent is not something felt at the kitchen table. Prices of flour, cooking oil, vegetables and electricity remain far above where they stood two or three years ago. The inflation rate measures the pace of increase, not the level of prices, and that distinction matters enormously to families who are still paying inflated rates for basic goods every single day.

The government also needs to be honest about how fragile this improvement is. A large part of the drop is due to the base effect, as last year’s high prices make this year’s comparison look better on paper. Energy prices remain volatile, the rupee is still under pressure, and any external shock, whether from global oil markets or domestic tax measures, could push inflation back into double digits within months. Claiming credit now, without acknowledging these risks, would be premature and would mislead the public about how far there is still to go.

Real relief will only come when wages catch up with the cumulative price increases of recent years, when utility bills stop consuming a disproportionate share of household income, and when the cost of food staples becomes predictable again. None of that is reflected in a single month’s inflation reading. The government would do better to treat this figure as a modest and welcome data point, not as proof that the economic crisis facing ordinary Pakistanis has passed. Until people actually feel the difference in their monthly budgets, talk of relief remains premature.

Similar Posts

  • Digital economy bet is starting to pay off

    Pakistan does not often receive praise from international publications on economic matters. This time, it has earned it. A US publication has praised Pakistan’s efforts to modernise its financial system, saying the country is steadily strengthening its position in the global digital financial landscape through reforms and technological innovation. This praise is well deserved. This did not happen by accident. It happened because Pakistan chose to invest in digital transformation at a time when many countries are still debating whether digital finance is worth the effort. The article rightly noted that Pakistan has the potential to play a meaningful role in the evolving global digital economy. The publication commended his vision, and for good reason. Building a regulatory system for virtual assets from scratch is not easy. Pakistan needed clear rules, not confusion, and PVARA has worked to provide exactly that. The message is simple: Pakistan must actively position itself within the international digital financial system to benefit from emerging technologies and new economic opportunities. What stands out most is a simple but powerful idea from the article. The future will belong to countries that make swift decisions and implement reforms without delay. This is a lesson Pakistan has learned the hard way in other sectors, where slow decision-making has cost the country valuable time. In digital finance, Pakistan appears determined not to repeat that mistake. The article also makes an important point about how governments must operate going forward. It says governments can no longer rely solely on traditional bureaucratic systems. They must instead adopt the speed, flexibility and innovation-driven approach of technology startups. This is a bold statement, but it reflects reality. Digital finance moves fast, and slow institutions get left behind. Digital assets are becoming the foundation of tomorrow’s financial infrastructure. Countries investing in digital finance today will be better positioned for long-term economic growth and global competitiveness. Pakistan is one of these countries, and that deserves recognition. None of this means the work is finished. The government still has a long road ahead in building trust and expanding financial inclusion. But the direction is right, and this recognition from an international publication confirms that Pakistan’s efforts are being noticed. Pakistan should build on this momentum, not lose it.

  • FBR’s generosity for importers  

    The Senate Sub Committee has once again put the Federal Board of Revenue in an uncomfortable spot, and rightly so. FBR has failed to explain what happened to Rs1120 billion worth of tax exempted imports that entered former FATA and PATA regions between 2018 and 2026. That is not a small sum. It is a number large enough to demand answers, not silence. Why has FBR not provided complete records? Why is a manual tracking system still in place for imports worth over a trillion rupees? These are basic questions, yet the Board seems unable or unwilling to answer them. Every day without proper automated verification is a day that opens the door to goods slipping illegally into taxable markets, undercutting honest businesses and draining public revenue. The tobacco sector adds another layer of concern. Major companies like Pakistan Tobacco Company and Philip Morris Pakistan Limited are now under scrutiny, alongside serious cases of cigarette theft and a tax charge sheet against a senior tax official. When 2,828 cigarette cartons worth Rs25 crore go missing from an FBR warehouse, it raises a simple question: who is minding the store? FBR must stop treating Parliament’s demands as optional. Consumption certificates, tax records, and clear Standard Operating Procedures are not favours to be delayed. They are basic obligations of an institution meant to protect national revenue. Senator Saifullah Abro’s Committee deserves credit for pushing this issue repeatedly. But pressure from one Senate committee cannot substitute for real reform inside FBR. The Board must answer, and answer now, before more billions disappear into the gaps of its own negligence.

  • New postmortem report

    An eight-member medical board has found that Mir Raza Ali died from a gunshot wound to the back. The board also found several serious injuries on his body from before death. This discovery changes the direction of a case that has drawn wide attention. The report came after a court ordered his grave to be opened at Karachi’s Rehmanial Masjid Graveyard. Doctors found a small entry wound on his upper back. The bullet broke a rib, tore through the heart, and exited from the chest. Doctors also found blood collected under the skin. This shows the injury happened while he was still alive. The doctors found more injuries too. They found bruises on the skull, a broken nose bone, and swelling on the face. There was also a crack running along the back of the skull, filled with dried blood. Marks were found near the throat area as well, though decay in the body made some tests harder to complete. The board has not given a final cause of death yet. Doctors have sent skin, muscle, hair, and bone samples for further testing. This new report turns the case from a missing person search into a suspected murder investigation. The Sindh government deserves credit here. By backing a court-ordered exhumation and a full medical board review, it has given this case a real chance at truth and justice. This kind of careful, science-based approach is exactly what difficult cases like this need. But what we need is a clear and reliable system for postmortem examinations across the board. Every case deserves properly trained doctors, modern lab facilities, and independent oversight from the start. Delays and unclear reports only hurt victims and their families. The Sindh government should build on this case by setting fixed rules for exhumations and postmortems, so families never have to wait years for the truth.

  • A fresh start with Afghanistan through Torkham 

    The government has decided to open all border crossings and transit routes with Afghanistan. This decision came after a meeting led by Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi. Senior officials and business leaders attended the meeting. They discussed ways to remove obstacles in bilateral trade. This is a wise and welcome step. Trade between neighbours brings benefits to both sides. Pakistani and Afghan traders have suffered due to closed borders. Goods get stuck. Businesses lose money. Ordinary families bear the cost. Reopening these routes will help traders move goods with ease. It will also support economic activity on both sides of the border. The meeting also focused on legal travel between the two countries. Citizens should be able to cross borders through proper channels. Legal procedures must remain in place. This keeps movement safe and orderly. It also protects both nations from misuse of open borders. Pakistan has shown patience and goodwill in this decision. Afghanistan must now respond as a good neighbour. Trade brings prosperity. It creates jobs. It builds markets. It gives ordinary Afghans a better life. Afghanistan can gain much more through honest trade than through any other path. Sadly, some elements continue to use Afghan soil to plan violence against Pakistan. This must stop. Harbouring terrorists brings only destruction. It hurts Afghanistan’s own image in the world. It scares away investors. It keeps the region trapped in conflict instead of growth. Afghanistan holds a choice between two futures. One path leads to markets, jobs and shared prosperity. The other leads to isolation and more suffering for its own people. The fresh step by the government also has a message for those who still carry arms. Violence has brought nothing but loss to this region for decades. Homes are destroyed. Children grow up without safety. Futures are cut short. There is still time to choose peace. Laying down arms and returning to normal life is a far better path than continued bloodshed. Reopening the border is a chance for both nations. Pakistan has extended its hand. Afghanistan must now choose trade and peace over hostility and terror.

  • Wheat price policy fails the farmer

    The Punjab government has set the new wheat release price at Rs3,800 per maund. This decision raises a serious question. Why is the province paying more now than it paid to its own farmers. Earlier this year, wheat growers across Punjab sold their crop at rates far lower than Rs3,800 per maund. Many farmers struggled to cover their basic costs. Fertiliser, diesel, and labour prices kept rising, but the government did not offer a fair price at harvest time. Now, months later, the same government is buying wheat from PASSCO at Rs4,150 per maund. This is imported wheat, bought at a much higher cost than what local farmers received. This gap sends a troubling message to the farming community. It tells them that growing wheat at home is less valuable than buying it from abroad. A farmer who works through the heat, spends money on seeds and water, and waits months for the harvest ends up earning less than what the state later pays for imported grain. This is not fair, and it is not sustainable. If this pattern continues, farmers may simply lose interest in wheat cultivation. Punjab is the backbone of Pakistan’s wheat production. If growers shift to other crops or leave farming altogether, the country could face a bigger crisis in the coming years. Food security cannot depend on imports alone. The federal and provincial governments must rethink this approach. Farmers need a support price that reflects their real costs and effort, announced before sowing season begins, not after imports have already been arranged. Punjab also needs to invest in storage and procurement systems so that local wheat is bought and stored efficiently, without forcing the province to rely on costlier imported stock. Protecting the price of roti for consumers is important. But that protection should not come at the cost of the farmer who grows the wheat in the first place.

  • Cambridge must answer students before it is too late

    Students in Pakistan have every right to be angry. They followed the rules, sat their exams honestly, and now they face a system that seems slow to answer basic questions. The Cambridge paper leak controversy should have been settled months ago. Instead, students are heading to protest outside the IBCC office in Islamabad because meetings keep getting postponed and answers keep getting delayed. The new forensic report from the National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency makes this more urgent, not less. Investigators found no signs that the leaked video files were edited or faked. That is a serious finding. It means the leaks were likely real, even though the report could not say who was behind them. When such evidence exists, students deserve a clear response, not silence before results and vague promises after. Cambridge’s decision to pull out of a key meeting just before results were announced sends the wrong message. It looks like an attempt to avoid difficult questions rather than face them. Postponing accountability until after grades are released only deepens mistrust among students, parents and teachers. The core issue is fairness. Even if leaked material reached only a small number of students, those students may have gained an unfair advantage. Honest students who worked hard without any early access to questions could end up disadvantaged. This is not a small technical matter. It affects university admissions and futures. Schools and education authorities also share blame. Many stayed quiet when the leaks were first reported and only spoke up once public pressure grew. That is not good enough. Cambridge, IBCC and the government must treat this seriously. Students are not asking for favours. They are asking for transparency, fairness and a guarantee that this will not happen again.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *