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The ‘provisional understanding’ with China that has caused misunderstanding

It was all smiles and handshakes when Maria Theresa Lazaro, then-foreign affairs undersecretary, concluded talks with her counterpart, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong, to ease the tension during resupply missions to Ayungin Shoal. Both sides have called this a “provisional understanding” or a “provisional agreement”—and have kept the terms confidential.

The Philippines thereafter conducted 13 resupply missions, all untroubled.

The meeting was held in Manila in July 2024, weeks after machete-wielding China Coast Guard (CCG) personnel assaulted a Navy rubber boat that brought food and supplies to the BRP Sierra Madre and, in the melee, cut off a Filipino sailor’s thumb. 

It was the first known violent encounter in the annals of rotation and resupply missions — known as RORE — to the aging Sierra Madre, which guards the Ayungin Shoal. A number of Navy and Marine personnel take turns keeping watch over the feature that China wants to control so that it can enforce its sweeping claims over the South China Sea.

But the fragile peace was shattered last month, two years after the “provisional understanding” took shape. A CCG ship came near the Sierra Madre, took anchor, and deployed a rigid hull inflatable boat with eight personnel aboard. They closed in on the Sierra Madre, sailed around it, and took videos and photos.

In response, the Sierra Madre crew deployed two rubber boats — one with two personnel and the other with five—and ordered the CCG vessel to leave, but the Chinese refused. A commotion ensued, and the Philippine personnel used their boat paddles to drive away the CCG. It was then that a CCG personnel hit a Filipino soldier with a long wooden pole, causing a gash on the latter’s head.

The smiles and the handshakes of July 2024 are no more. 

He said, she said

Why did the CCG violate the peace?

China’s ambassador, Jing Quan, claimed that the RORE brought construction materials, particularly barrier nets, which the “provisional understanding” did not allow. “Our people found your soldiers… they’re building some kind of barrier nets… doing some kind of construction work on the ship,” Quan said. “That’s against the spirit of our provisional agreement. That is no new construction; keep the status quo…”

There is no such thing in the agreement, Lazaro, now the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) secretary, countered. In addition, the DFA said in a statement that the Philippines doesn’t need to seek permission for resupply missions, doesn’t allow the boarding or inspection of Philippine ships, and doesn’t “concede the Philippines’ sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction” in Ayungin Shoal in the West Philippine Sea. (In 2016, an international arbitral tribunal declared Ayungin Shoal part of our Exclusive Economic Zone.)

The “provisional understanding,” the DFA further explained, is a “set of principles and approaches observed by both sides in order to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation.” 

Lazaro said a team at the DFA crafted the “provisional understanding” and was given the green light by then-national security adviser Eduardo Año.  Left out was Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, who said he was not consulted. 

What happens during operations?

Apparently, something got lost between the high-minded “principles and approaches” and the actual nitty-gritty of operations.

Soon after the “provisional understanding” was set into motion, signs that both sides were not on the same page surfaced. A red flag. 

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson claimed that the Philippines notified China of its RORE before it was carried out, adding that “after confirming on-site that the Philippine vessel carried only humanitarian living necessities, the Chinese side let the vessel through.”  

Then-foreign secretary Enrique Manalo clarified that Beijing and Manila agreed to an “exchange of information” rather than “prior notification.” Asked by a reporter when the “exchange of information” took place, Manalo replied: “It’s gotta be before. Otherwise, what’s the sense of exchanging (information) after?” 

Well before this “provisional understanding” unraveled, I gathered from two sources with knowledge of the ROREs to Sierra Madre that our side would inform the Chinese of an upcoming resupply mission and allow the CCG to sail near our boats to check their contents — from a certain distance.

The sense I got was that it was better to keep this arrangement to de-escalate the tension and  successfully resupply our troops rather than risk a conflict at sea. As we have seen, the Chinese have always blocked or water cannoned our ROREs when they learned that our boats were carrying construction materials to fortify the World War II-era Sierra Madre, effectively a shipwreck. 

China sees Ayungin Shoal as an easy win once the dilapidated vessel is ravaged by time and the forces of nature, no longer able to serve as our country’s outpost.

Core issue

What next? The DFA could choose to make the “provisional understanding” public. Or it could go back to the table to iron out the misunderstandings with Beijing.

However, at the core of this issue is the fact that the Philippines has sovereign rights over Ayungin Shoal—which China will never accept.

That’s a fundamental divide that requires much more than a “provisional understanding” to resolve. 

Let me know what you think. You can email me at: marites.vitug@rappler.com.

Till next newsletter!

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