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BEIJING: Global oil prices advanced on Wednesday as uncertainty surrounding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, coupled with attacks on commercial shipping in key Middle Eastern waterways, heightened concerns about disruptions to crude supplies. At 0553 GMT, Brent crude futures had gained 75 cents, or 0.84%, to reach $89.66 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 72 cents, or 0.87%, to $83.92 a barrel. Both benchmarks had climbed by more than $1 earlier in the session. The latest gains followed a strong rally on Tuesday, when both Brent and WTI settled more than $1 higher, reaching their highest closing levels since July 31. Oil prices had already surged around 5% on Monday as market participants became increasingly sceptical about the prospects of a US-Iran agreement to end the conflict. Concerns intensified after US President Donald Trump issued a fresh demand that Iran compensate people killed in wars, attacks and protests. Market analysts said the latest developments have left energy markets highly sensitive to changes in the US-Iran narrative. “The Middle East is increasingly becoming a seesaw between ‘deal’ and ‘war’,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova in Singapore, describing the resulting price swings as a pendulum moving between roughly $70 and $90 a barrel. Shipping Disruptions Add to Market Pressure Concerns over the safety of crude shipments were also reinforced after the United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks involving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, making any prolonged disruption there a major concern for global oil markets. Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei said the strategic waterway would remain closed unless Washington accepted Tehran’s conditions for ending the conflict. Those demands reportedly include the release of frozen Iranian assets and an end to other regional conflicts. Trump, meanwhile, has continued to send mixed signals about the US response, alternating between warnings of a tougher military approach and suggestions that an agreement could still be reached. The uncertainty has contributed to sharp swings in crude prices as traders attempt to assess whether the conflict will escalate or move towards negotiations. Sachdeva said markets could increasingly become accustomed to the frequent changes in the geopolitical narrative, creating a highly volatile environment for short-term traders and speculators. Hormuz Traffic Falls Sharply Shipping data highlighted the scale of the disruption. The number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell to only eight on Tuesday, according to shipping data cited in market reports. That compares with an estimated 125 to 140 vessels a day before the conflict, underscoring the extent to which security concerns have affected maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. A sustained reduction in shipping through Hormuz could have significant implications for global energy markets because the route handles a substantial share of international oil shipments. US Crude Inventories in Focus Despite geopolitical concerns, developments in the United States provided a counterweight to the bullish sentiment. A Reuters poll released on Tuesday had indicated that US crude and fuel inventories were expected to decline during the week ended August 7. However, market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a substantial increase in US crude stocks. According to the sources, US crude inventories increased by approximately 9.1 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks declined by around 1.5 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by approximately 596,000 barrels. The reported crude build was considerably larger than market expectations. If confirmed by official figures, the increase could ease concerns over tightness in the US oil market and potentially limit further price gains. Haitong Futures said in a market note that the unexpectedly large increase in crude inventories could reduce some of the supply-related pressure currently supporting oil prices. EIA Data Awaited Investors are now awaiting official inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy. The EIA’s weekly petroleum report is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. Market participants will closely examine the data for signs of changes in crude production, refinery activity, gasoline demand and commercial inventories. Any significant deviation from the API figures could trigger additional volatility in oil prices. Longer-Term Supply Risks Remain Beyond the immediate market reaction, longer-term concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions continue to provide support to crude prices. The EIA has estimated that disruptions to Middle Eastern crude supplies could amount to approximately 600,000 barrels per day and persist through the end of 2027. With geopolitical tensions still unresolved and shipping activity through major regional waterways significantly reduced, traders are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments involving the United States, Iran and regional armed groups.

Gold prices advanced nearly 1% on Wednesday as investors reduced expectations of further monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve and turned their attention to upcoming inflation figures that could provide fresh clues about the central bank’s next policy move. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,406.34 per ounce by 0330 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.6% to $4,466.70. The precious metal remained supported after recording strong gains in recent sessions, although prices faced technical resistance around the 100-day moving average. Gold had climbed to a 10-week high on Tuesday before retreating from the key technical level near $4,387 per ounce, marking its second decline this month. Market analysts said changing expectations for US interest rates were providing an important boost to bullion. “The primary driver for gold is the reduction in pricing of rate hikes by the Fed,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. He added that gold had also benefited from a technical breakout above the $4,200 level late last week, which helped strengthen upward momentum and encouraged further buying. Weaker jobs data shifts Fed expectations Gold’s recent rally has been supported by signs of cooling in the US labour market. Bullion recorded its strongest weekly performance since January on Friday after employment data came in weaker than expected, prompting traders to reassess expectations for further interest-rate increases. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets were pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a rate hike in September, compared with about 60% before the release of the jobs report. Investors are now awaiting the latest US Consumer Price Index figures, due later on Wednesday. The inflation report could have a significant impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions. A softer-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations for a less aggressive monetary policy stance, potentially providing additional support to gold. Conversely, stronger inflation could revive concerns about higher interest rates and put pressure on non-yielding assets. Gold typically benefits from lower interest rates because bullion does not generate interest income. When borrowing costs and bond yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold tends to fall, making the metal more attractive to investors. However, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee has cautioned that inflation remains a key concern. He said he was more worried about inflation remaining excessively high than about weakness in the labour market, highlighting the challenge facing policymakers as they balance price stability against employment conditions. Geopolitical tensions add to safe-haven demand Geopolitical developments in the Middle East also remained an important factor for financial markets. Oil prices extended their gains after the United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement reported separate attacks involving shipping on Tuesday. At the same time, hopes for an agreement to end the conflict involving Iran appeared to weaken. Iran has indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington agrees to its conditions, raising concerns over the potential impact on global energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for international oil shipments, and any prolonged disruption could increase energy prices and intensify inflationary pressures worldwide. Such uncertainty can also encourage demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Silver, platinum and palladium also advance Other precious metals followed gold higher during Wednesday’s session. Spot silver gained 1.2% to $65.46 per ounce. The metal remained below Tuesday’s peak, which marked its highest level since June 22. Platinum also strengthened, rising 0.6% to $1,754.10 per ounce, while palladium advanced 0.8% to $1,370.86.

The federal government has revived plans to restore Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM), signaling a major policy shift after previously deciding to wind up the loss-making state-owned enterprise. The development follows renewed interest from international parties in bringing the dormant steel producer back into operation, with Russian company Industrial Engineering LLC emerging as a key potential partner for the revival, modernisation and restructuring of the mill. Well-informed sources said the government has initiated consultations with the Russian firm to assess the technical, financial and operational requirements for restoring PSM’s production capacity. Two protocols have already been signed between Industrial Engineering LLC and Pakistan Steel Mills under the Ministry of Industries and Production. The first agreement was signed in Moscow on July 10, 2025, and provides a framework for cooperation on the revival, modernisation and restructuring of PSM. The second protocol was signed on November 26, 2025, during the 10th session of the Pakistan-Russia Intergovernmental Commission. The second agreement focuses on assessing the operational and capital expenditure required to restart manufacturing activities at the steel mill. Feasibility assessment under way According to sources, the authorities have also carried out an exercise to calculate production costs and evaluate the commercial viability of restarting PSM. The assessment is expected to help determine whether the mill can operate sustainably and compete in the domestic and international steel markets after years of inactivity. The findings will form the basis for recommendations to the government before a final decision is taken on the future structure and operations of the enterprise. Sources said the relevant authority would submit recommendations to the Cabinet Committee on State-Owned Enterprises (CCoSOEs), seeking an end to the liquidation process and approval to pursue the revival option with the participation of international investors. The move represents a reversal of the government’s earlier policy. Government had approved liquidation In May 2024, the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) had decided to scrap Pakistan Steel Mills after efforts to find a buyer failed to produce a viable offer. The Cabinet Committee on Rightsizing subsequently approved the liquidation of the existing mill in August 2024. However, the government has now shifted its focus towards rehabilitation, apparently encouraged by renewed international interest and the possibility of securing foreign technical and financial support. A formal summary regarding the proposed policy shift has been submitted to the Ministry of Industries and Production for consideration, sources said. A parliamentary secretary also indicated that the government’s policy direction had changed and that efforts were now being made to restore PSM to operational status. He said the timeline agreed upon with the Russian company would be followed, with the relevant departments expected to take further steps after completion of the ongoing assessments. Power minister signals renewed revival efforts Separately, Minister for Power Sardar Awais Leghari said recommendations for reviving Pakistan’s dormant steel giant would soon be presented to policymakers, reinforcing indications that the government is seriously reconsidering the future of PSM. Speaking at a webinar titled “Pakistan-Russia: Strengthening Trade, Education and Energy Collaboration,” jointly organised by the University of World Civilizations Moscow (UWCM) and the Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Leghari highlighted the growing momentum in Pakistan-Russia relations. He said bilateral ties had strengthened over the past two decades on the basis of mutual trust, respect and a shared interest in regional stability. The minister’s remarks come as Pakistan explores greater Russian involvement in key economic and industrial sectors, including the possible rehabilitation of PSM. Financial burden remains a challenge Pakistan Steel Mills has remained largely dormant for years, creating a continuing financial burden for the government. Following the earlier decision to wind up the enterprise, the government has continued to bear the salaries and other expenses of its remaining employees. Meanwhile, some of the mill’s liabilities and operating costs have been met through proceeds generated from the sale of scrap. The proposed revival could therefore provide an opportunity to turn the idle industrial asset into a productive enterprise while reducing the recurring financial burden on the national exchequer. However, the government is expected to carefully evaluate the mill’s outstanding liabilities, infrastructure requirements, production costs, technology needs and long-term market prospects before committing substantial public resources. If the revival plan moves forward with foreign participation, the project could also open the door to new investment, technology transfer and employment opportunities in Pakistan’s steel and related industrial sectors.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and China are moving toward a more business-driven model of cooperation under the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with greater emphasis on Business-to-Business (B2B) partnerships, industrial development, exports and productivity rather than large-scale Government-to-Government (G2G) financing. The development emerged during a high-level Chinese delegation’s visit to the CPEC Secretariat, where discussions focused on strengthening industrial and commercial ties between the two countries. According to an official statement issued by the Ministry of Planning on Tuesday, the Chinese delegation was headed by Sun Dongsheng, Senior Advisor, Economic Affairs Press. The delegation met Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal, along with senior policymakers and development experts. The talks centred on ways to advance B2B and industrial cooperation under CPEC 2.0, reflecting a broader shift in the corridor’s priorities from infrastructure-led development toward industrialisation, exports, technology and private-sector participation. From infrastructure to industrialisation During the meeting, Ahsan Iqbal briefed the Chinese delegation on the government’s Uraan Pakistan economic transformation programme and outlined Islamabad’s priorities for the next phase of CPEC. The minister proposed closer cooperation with Chinese institutions, including counterparts of the National Centre of New Manufacturing, to benefit from China’s experience in advanced manufacturing, innovation, automation and robotics. He said Pakistan needed to strengthen its productive capacity and adopt modern technologies to remain competitive in the era of Industrial Revolution 4.0 and prepare for the emerging Industrial Revolution 5.0. Ahsan Iqbal identified Pakistan’s limited export base as one of the country’s major economic challenges. According to the minister, repeated attempts to accelerate economic growth have struggled to generate sustainable momentum because productive sectors have not been sufficiently integrated with export markets. He stressed that the government’s priority was therefore to turn agriculture, manufacturing and other productive sectors into stronger sources of exports and foreign exchange. Pakistan seeks greater access to Chinese market The minister also called for greater facilitation of Pakistani exports to China, highlighting the considerable gap between the two countries’ trade potential. He noted that China imports goods worth around $2.6 trillion annually, whereas Pakistan’s exports to the Chinese market remain close to $3 billion. Ahsan said Pakistan needed to increase its presence in the Chinese market by improving production standards, competitiveness and the ability of domestic businesses to meet international demand. He expressed the expectation that CPEC 2.0 could help Pakistan address what he described as its “export deficit”, just as the first phase of the corridor contributed to addressing the country’s energy shortfall. CPEC enters a new phase Under CPEC’s first phase, China committed substantial financing to infrastructure, energy and other development projects in Pakistan. Nearly $30 billion was invested in infrastructure and power-sector projects, including independent power producers. However, the focus is now increasingly shifting toward private-sector-led cooperation. Islamabad continues to pursue financing for selected road and motorway projects, but China has yet to demonstrate readiness to finance the long-delayed Main Line-1 (ML-1) railway upgrade, which had previously been regarded as one of CPEC’s flagship projects. The latest consultations indicate that CPEC 2.0 is expected to rely more heavily on commercial partnerships between Pakistani and Chinese companies. The government has already been encouraging enterprises from both countries to explore joint ventures and investment opportunities in sectors including manufacturing, agriculture and mining. Ahsan Iqbal said recent agreements between Pakistani and Chinese companies showed that B2B cooperation was beginning to gain momentum. He expressed confidence that stronger business-to-business engagement would support the modernisation of Pakistan’s industrial and agricultural sectors while creating opportunities for investment, employment and exports. China stresses productive capacity Sun Dongsheng reaffirmed the importance China attaches to its longstanding relationship with Pakistan and highlighted the achievements of CPEC’s first phase. He called for further cooperation in industrial and agricultural development, particularly in strengthening Pakistan’s productive capacity. The Chinese delegation also stressed the importance of involving small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in bilateral economic cooperation. Greater enterprise-to-enterprise engagement, according to the delegation, could help create commercially sustainable partnerships and expand opportunities for businesses in both countries. The discussions also focused on technology transfer, innovation, skills development and the creation of stronger industrial linkages. Five Corridors aligned with Uraan Pakistan Officials also discussed the strategic relationship between the Five Corridors of CPEC 2.0 and Pakistan’s 5Es framework under Uraan Pakistan. The government’s 5Es framework focuses on exports, e-Pakistan, environment and climate change, energy and infrastructure, and equity and empowerment. The participants stressed that alignment between the two initiatives needed to translate into concrete economic outcomes, including new enterprises, technology adoption, innovation, employment opportunities, skills development, increased exports and higher investment. The delegation was also briefed on the progress achieved during CPEC Phase I and Pakistan’s priorities for the second phase. The consultations suggest that the next stage of CPEC will increasingly be measured not only by the volume of infrastructure investment but also by its ability to improve Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness, expand exports, attract private investment and create sustainable employment.

Banks and other financial institutions across Pakistan will observe a three-day closure from August 14 to August 16 in connection with Independence Day and the regular weekend holidays. According to a circular issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the central bank, commercial banks, financial institutions and the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) will remain closed on Friday, August 14, which has been declared a public holiday on account of Independence Day. The closure will be followed by the regular weekend holidays on Saturday and Sunday, August 15 and 16, respectively. As a result, banking and stock market activities will remain suspended for three consecutive days. The holiday schedule is expected to affect routine banking operations, including branch-based customer services and other in-person transactions. Customers who need to visit bank branches or carry out services that require physical processing have been advised to plan their transactions accordingly. However, the closure will not affect digital banking facilities. The SBP said automated teller machines (ATMs), internet banking and other online banking services will continue to operate during the holidays. Customers will therefore be able to access cash through ATMs and use digital channels for eligible transactions throughout the three-day break. Regular banking and financial market operations are expected to resume on Monday, August 17, when banks, financial institutions and the stock market reopen after the Independence Day holiday and weekend.

ISLAMABAD: Electricity consumers across Pakistan may face higher power bills from next month as electricity distribution companies have approached the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) seeking a quarterly tariff adjustment. According to sources, the proposed adjustment could result in an increase of around Rs1 per unit in electricity prices during the upcoming quarter. The distribution companies have submitted their adjustment request to NEPRA, which will examine the figures and determine the impact on consumers under the applicable quarterly tariff mechanism. Sources said the expected increase is linked to the expiry of the existing quarterly adjustment relief. Under the current arrangement, consumers are receiving a relief of Rs1.99 per unit, which is scheduled to expire at the end of the current month. With the relief ending, electricity tariffs are expected to rise for consumers across the country from next month, subject to NEPRA’s approval of the proposed adjustment. The quarterly tariff adjustment mechanism is used to pass on changes in electricity generation costs and other relevant expenses to consumers. Depending on the regulator’s assessment, the resulting adjustment can either increase or reduce electricity bills. The proposed increase is likely to add to the financial burden on households and businesses already facing elevated electricity costs. Consumers are now awaiting NEPRA’s decision, which will determine the final impact on electricity tariffs in the upcoming quarter. NEPRA is expected to review the distribution companies’ submissions before announcing its decision. The final adjustment may differ from the amount initially sought by the power distribution companies following the regulator’s scrutiny of the data and applicable costs.

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) has imposed a fine of Rs77.8 million on China Mobile Pakistan (CM Pak) after determining that the operator failed to ensure compliance with mandatory geo-fencing rules governing biometric verification system (BVS) devices used for SIM sales. The regulatory action followed a field inspection in which the PTA found that an authorised sales representative linked to CM Pak’s Taxila franchise was selling SIMs from a location in Islamabad that fell outside the approved geographical area of the franchise. According to the PTA’s enforcement order, the inspection was carried out on March 30, 2026. During the inspection, the regulator discovered that a Data Sales Officer (DSO) associated with the Taxila franchise was conducting SIM sales at I-10 Markaz, Islamabad. The location was not within the authorised territorial jurisdiction or designated geo-location of the franchise. The PTA also found that the sales activity had been conducted without the required Door-to-Door/Kiosk approval from the regulator. Geo-fencing requirement The PTA’s regulatory framework requires BVS devices used for SIM issuance to remain within a prescribed distance of the approved sales location. Under the mandatory geo-fencing mechanism, such devices must operate within 100 metres of the designated geo-location of an authorised sales channel. The purpose of the requirement is to ensure that biometric devices are not moved to unauthorised locations for SIM issuance. The mechanism is also designed to strengthen oversight of SIM sales, prevent misuse of biometric verification equipment and improve the traceability of subscriber registrations. The regulator made it clear that SIM sales outside an approved geo-location are not permitted unless prior approval has been obtained from the PTA. CM Pak challenges regulatory action CM Pak contested the proposed enforcement proceedings, maintaining that the incident was an isolated operational lapse involving an individual DSO rather than evidence of a broader failure in the company’s compliance system. The operator argued that the SIMs concerned had been issued only after the required biometric verification process had been successfully completed. It further stated that the transactions were properly recorded and remained traceable through the prescribed systems. CM Pak also maintained that there had been no issuance of fake or anonymous SIMs, no bypass of biometric verification and no failure in the verification process conducted through the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA). The company told the regulator that it had taken disciplinary and corrective measures after being informed of the violation. These measures included issuing a show-cause notice and warning letter to the concerned franchise and terminating the services of the DSO involved in the incident. CM Pak also said it had circulated compliance instructions across its network and strengthened internal monitoring mechanisms to prevent similar incidents in the future. PTA rejects defence The PTA, however, did not accept the company’s argument that successful biometric verification should be treated as sufficient compliance. The authority ruled that biometric verification and geo-fencing constitute separate regulatory requirements. While biometric verification is intended to establish the identity of a subscriber, geo-fencing controls where the SIM sale and verification process can legally take place. According to the regulator, compliance with one requirement does not eliminate the obligation to comply with the other. The PTA observed that allowing BVS devices to operate beyond their authorised locations could weaken the regulatory controls established for SIM issuance, regardless of whether the subscriber’s biometric verification was successfully completed. The regulator also rejected CM Pak’s position that responsibility for the incident could primarily be attributed to the franchise or individual sales officer. Under the applicable Subscribers Antecedents Verification Regulations and licence conditions, the PTA maintained that the licensed operator carries direct responsibility for ensuring that its authorised sales network complies with regulatory requirements. Corrective action not enough to erase violation The authority further noted that steps taken by an operator after a violation has been detected can potentially serve as mitigating factors but cannot remove the violation itself. The PTA stressed that geo-fencing is a substantive regulatory safeguard rather than a procedural requirement that can be overlooked if other verification mechanisms are functioning properly. It said allowing subsequent corrective measures to effectively neutralise an established breach could undermine the purpose of mandatory compliance requirements and weaken regulatory oversight of SIM issuance. After reviewing the show-cause notice, CM Pak’s written responses, compliance report and submissions made during the hearing, the PTA concluded that the operator had failed to maintain adequate supervision and regulatory control over its authorised sales channel. Rs77.8m penalty imposed Based on its findings, the PTA held CM Pak liable under Section 23 of the Pakistan Telecommunication (Re-organization) Act, 1996. The authority subsequently imposed a penalty of Rs77.8 million (Rs77,800,000) on the company and directed it to deposit the amount within 10 days of receiving the enforcement order. The PTA warned that failure to pay the penalty within the specified period could result in further proceedings or action under the applicable law.

Pakistan’s total government debt stock climbed to a record level of nearly Rs84 trillion by the end of June 2026, highlighting the growing financial burden facing the country amid continued reliance on domestic and external borrowing. According to the latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the federal government’s total debt increased by 7.4% on a year-on-year basis during the fiscal year ended June 2026. The central government’s debt stood at Rs83,642 billion in June 2026, compared with Rs77,888 billion recorded in June 2025. The debt stock also increased significantly on a monthly basis, rising from Rs81,955 billion in May 2026. The latest figures indicate that the government’s debt increased by around Rs5,754 billion, or Rs5.75 trillion, over the course of the fiscal year. Domestic debt remains major component Domestic borrowing accounted for the largest portion of the government’s total debt. According to SBP data, the federal government’s domestic debt rose by 9.1% year-on-year to Rs59,441 billion by June 2026. The increase reflects continued dependence on the domestic financial market to meet the government’s financing requirements, including budgetary needs and debt-servicing obligations. Meanwhile, the federal government’s external debt increased by 3.3% during the year, reaching Rs24,201 billion by June 2026. Although the growth in external debt remained comparatively lower than domestic borrowing, the foreign-currency component continues to place pressure on the country’s external financing position, particularly when debt repayments coincide with periods of weak foreign exchange inflows. Debt servicing poses growing challenge The continued rise in the debt stock is also raising concerns about the government’s ability to manage debt-servicing costs while creating fiscal space for development spending and public services. A growing share of government revenues is required to meet interest and principal repayment obligations, limiting the resources available for infrastructure, social development and other productive investments. Economic experts have warned that if the debt trajectory is not brought under control, the rising burden could turn into a “debt trap” for the economy. They argue that reducing dependence on borrowing would require stronger revenue mobilisation, greater fiscal discipline, higher exports and sustained economic growth. Improving the efficiency of public spending and reducing reliance on debt-financed expenditures could also help contain the pressure.