Gulf Mirror

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    Maj Gen (R) Dr. Rajih Al-Baqami needs to go beyond defence diplomacy

    ByJustpaste.in

    ISLAMABAD: For the second consecutive time, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has appointed a career military veteran as its ambassador to Islamabad, inaugurating a compelling new chapter in Pakistan-Saudi defense diplomacy. The recent designation of Major General (R) Dr. Rajih bin Tami Al-Baqami as the Saudi envoy comes at a pivotal geopolitical juncture. Smaller Gulf states like Qatar, Bahrain, and particularly Kuwait are increasingly turning their strategic gaze toward Riyadh for defense assurances. In response, Saudi Arabia has conspicuously integrated Pakistan into the its defensive calculus, both specifically within the Gulf and more broadly across the Middle East. This deepening collaboration signifies the beginning of the end of an era characterized by blind, unilateral reliance on the United States for regional security. Whether through multinational maritime security coalitions or trilateral defense pacts, Riyadh has unequivocally positioned Islamabad as a trusted strategic partner. Crucially, while Washington has not been entirely excluded from the new arrangements, the table that once seated only the US now accommodates Pakistan and Turkey’s president states that more seats will soon be filled. His hint is for Egypt. Turkey is playing a big game and Egypt is part of his plans for Sahel and Middle East. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has extended its supportive hand to facilitate Pakistan’s major defense agreements with Somalia, further expanding Islamabad’s footprint in Riyadh’s sphere of influence. This rapidly evolving landscape demands an exceptionally shrewd Saudi diplomat in Islamabad, given that intellectual powerhouses like the United States are unlikely to passively observe these seismic shifts in the affluent Gulf region. One could argue that defense diplomacy has cycled back to the fervor of the 1970s but the stark difference is that the towering strategic minds of that era, such as Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Ardeshir Zahedi, and Henry Kissinger, are no longer among us and on the other hand China of today is 100 times more important than China of 1970s. However, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has proven himself uniquely adept at this high-stakes game. Without jeopardizing ties with Washington, he has fortified relations with Beijing to an unprecedented degree; in fact, Riyadh is now expanding its commercial and strategic footprint with China more aggressively than with the US. According to the Saudi Foreign Ministry, Dr. Al-Baqami is among eight newly appointed ambassadors who recently took their oath before the Crown Prince in Jeddah. Despite this formal announcement, frequent winner of government awards for his services in journalism, Saleh Zaafir, curiously attributed the news to his “sources.” Meanwhile, leading AI chatbots and search engines like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, and Gemini draw a blank regarding the nature of Dr. Al-Baqami’s specific postings in Saudi diplomatic missions London and Jordan, which strongly suggests a classified, defense-oriented portfolio. Dr. Al-Baqami hails from the warrior Al-Baqami tribe, a lineage renowned for its formidable resilience and esprit de corps. Yet, a note of caution is urgently warranted. Misleading and unrealistic commentary regarding Saudi-Pakistan defense pacts has become rife. These agreements will not automatically neutralize Pakistan’s internal existential threats, specifically, the escalating bureaucratic corruption and spiraling crime rates. The historical precedent is sobering: the practice of deploying military officers to diplomatic roles is ancient, tracing back to the Roman and Byzantine empires, yet it has no inherent correlation with a nation’s prosperity or moral standing. Napoleon formalized this tradition in the pre-WWI era, but French military envoys failed to stave off famine and destitution in France. Subsequently, professional foreign ministries emerged, and bureaucrats, much like termites, consumed diplomacy from the inside, burying interstate relations beneath classified files. When opacity became the norm, civil society rebelled, giving rise to digital media and public diplomacy, a trend recently taken to extremes by former US President Donald Trump. For the new Saudi ambassador, public diplomacy will prove a formidable challenge. Although several Saudi-funded media outlets operate in Pakistan, they have largely been hijacked by populist scribes who have reduced them to ashes of sensationalism. Reclaiming these platforms from the clutches of journalistic mediocrity must be an immediate priority. Dr. Al-Baqami’s predecessor, Nawaf bin Malik Al-Maliki, a retired Saudi Navy officer, remained in Islamabad for nearly twelve years. Pakistan’s navy has historically played a pivotal role in the formation and training of the Saudi Naval Forces. Al-Maliki initially arrived as defense attaché in 2014, the very year MBS ascended to a high office before being appointed Defense Minister in 2015. When MBS became Crown Prince in 2017, Al-Maliki assumed the ambassadorship. He retained this position for a decade indicating that he was a trusted confidant of the Crown Prince. Intriguingly, Al-Maliki’s next posting is Algeria—a nation where military dominance permeates business and governance, ensnaring the country in poverty and bloodshed. As Algeria remains a Saudi ally, it is premature to forecast the trajectory of his new mission. To conclude, one can only hope that Major General (Retd) Dr. Rajih Al-Baqami’s tenure in Pakistan transcends the narrow confines of defense diplomacy. The true test of his legacy will lie in revitalizing public diplomacy, fostering people-to-people connections, and navigating the intricate socio-political fabric of Pakistan with the same dexterity he brings to the strategic chessboard.

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    Holy Trinity: Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Türkiye

    ByJustpaste.in

    The historic partnership between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is undergoing its most significant structural evolution in decades. For over half a century, the relationship functioned on a familiar security-for-capital framework. Islamabad offered military training, troop deployments, and strategic depth, while Riyadh responded with essential financial bailouts, discounted oil facilities, and employment opportunities for millions of Pakistani expatriates. However, recent diplomatic breakthroughs headlined by the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) and its subsequent expansion into a trilateral security pact alongside Türkiye mark a decisive leap forward. The bilateral relationship is rapidly shifting away from transactional, crisis-driven assistance toward a formalized, institutionalized strategic and economic alliance. Evolution of the Security Paradigm Historically, military collaboration between the two nations relied on informal arrangements, temporary troop rotations along Saudi borders, and specialized training programs. The formalization of a mutual defense clause that an attack on either nation constitutes an aggression against both fundamentally alters this dynamic. Amid growing uncertainty regarding traditional Western security guarantees and volatile regional dynamics across the Gulf, Riyadh views Pakistan’s battle-tested military capacity and nuclear deterrent as a critical regional shield. Pakistan’s recent military deployments demonstrate that this pact goes beyond mere symbolic diplomatic language. The inclusion of Türkiye creates a formidable defense ecosystem. This framework combines Turkish aerospace technology and defense manufacturing, Pakistani operational combat experience, and Saudi financial capital. Replacing Short-Term Bailouts with Direct Capital Parallel to the defense realm, bilateral economic engagement is abandoning the reactive annual renewal model. Previously, Pakistan relied on periodic, short-term central bank deposits from Riyadh to stabilize its foreign exchange reserves. The new paradigm prioritizes long-term equity investments and sovereign economic integration. Anchor Investments in Key Sectors: Alignment with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 framework has unlocked direct equity participation in Pakistan’s primary assets, including the Reko Diq copper-gold project, renewable energy grid upgrades, and critical transport infrastructure. Institutionalized Energy Buffer: Unscheduled deferred-payment oil arrangements are being structured into permanent facilities, providing Pakistan with predictability against global energy spikes while directly binding Saudi economic interests to Pakistan’s financial solvency. Labor Mobility and Tech Integration: Both nations are working toward transforming low-skilled migrant flows into a skills compact, alongside integrating digital payment gateways to streamline direct remittance flows into Pakistani bank accounts. Geopolitical Constraints and Regional Realities While the formalization of ties guarantees structural support, it introduces diplomatic challenges across major geopolitical arenas. Pakistan shares a 900 km border with Tehran and cannot sustain an overtly hostile western neighbor. Islamabad will actively position itself as a diplomatic bridge and mediator rather than acting as a military proxy in Middle Eastern disputes. Saudi Arabia maintains robust, multi-billion-dollar trade ties and strategic partnerships with New Delhi. Riyadh will keep its security pact with Pakistan separate from its commercial ties with India, preserving its broad economic balance in South Asia. Formal security commitments increase the risk of being drawn into distant Middle Eastern flashpoints. Pakistan will face  pressure to provide military backing during future regional crises, limiting the neutrality it previously maintained.   This institutional consolidation reshapes both South Asian and Gulf dynamics. Pakistan secures long-term economic stability and elevated geopolitical status, while Saudi Arabia anchors its defense architecture with proven regional partners.

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    Iran’s ultimatum to Gulf neighbors amid US standoff

    ByJustpaste.in

    Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East reached a state of alert today following a direct diplomatic ultimatum from Tehran to neighboring Arab nations. Iranian authorities have issued an explicit warning to Gulf states, urging them to exert diplomatic leverage over the United States administration to curb aggressive posturing, or face severe regional consequences, including potential retaliatory actions targeting critical infrastructure and trade corridors. The ultimatum highlights the delicate tightrope walked by oil-rich nations in the Arabian Peninsula, who find themselves caught in the crossfire of renewed political and economic pressure campaigns. As global energy markets closely monitor the developing situation, Tehran’s warning serves as a stark reminder of how rapidly regional proxy disputes can evolve into broader threats to global supply chains and economic stability. A High-Stakes Regional Warning In recent communications conveyed through diplomatic channels, Iranian officials emphasized that Gulf nations can no longer claim strict neutrality while allowing their territories, airspace, or strategic partnerships to support foreign military or economic pressure campaigns. Tehran made it clear that if aggressive measures against its economic interests and sovereignty continue, the operational security of neighboring states could be compromised. The tone of the warning reflects Tehran’s strategy to leverage the economic vulnerabilities of its neighbors. By raising the prospect of disruptions to regional oil production facilities, shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, and commercial hubs, Iran aims to compel Gulf leaders to actively advocate for de-escalation in Washington. The Dilemma Facing Gulf States For neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait, this ultimatum poses a major strategic dilemma. In recent years, these nations have pursued a dual policy: strengthening their defense alignments with Western partners while simultaneously opening diplomatic dialogue with Iran to reduce regional tensions. However, an intensified standoff severely limits their ability to maintain that equilibrium. Much of the Gulf’s economic diversification and energy output relies on uninterrupted commerce and stable maritime routes. Any direct target on infrastructure could disrupt worldwide energy prices and local economies. While these nations house key military installations and host international forces, they remain geographically exposed to short-range missile, drone, and naval capabilities possessed by regional forces. Gulf leadership must weigh the risks of pushing back against Western strategies versus the immediate security threats posed by an angered neighbor across the water. Global Energy Markets and Future Outlook The immediate ripple effects of these threats were felt across international markets, where Brent crude futures showed immediate volatility reflecting a built-in risk premium. Analysts warn that even minor disruptions in energy transport or localized incidents near vital waterways could trigger sharp price spikes, compounding existing global economic uncertainties.   As diplomatic envoys work behind the scenes to de-escalate the rhetoric, the situation remains fluid. The coming days will test whether Gulf states can successfully mediate between opposing forces to prevent localized tensions from spilling over into a wider, economically damaging regional conflict.