PBS revises import data after billions of dollars in discrepancies
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has revised the country’s monthly and annual import figures after uncovering major discrepancies in trade data, with the adjustments reaching billions of dollars over certain periods.
The data revisions, which could amount to as much as $30 billion for some periods, are expected to have a notable impact on Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations and other key economic indicators. The statistical agency has incorporated the updated import figures across several major sectors as part of the data reconciliation process.
According to senior government officials, the PBS has completed a detailed report outlining the discrepancies and the methodology used to revise the import statistics. The report has been submitted to the Ministry of Finance, which is currently examining its potential implications. The ministry is expected to make the findings public by the end of August 2026.
Differences emerge between PBS and SBP data
The issue came to light after officials identified significant differences between import figures compiled by the PBS and corresponding data maintained by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
The discrepancies were initially detected while comparing Pakistan’s trade figures with China. Further scrutiny subsequently revealed differences in specific tariff lines and categories of imports that had not been fully reflected in the PBS data.
Following the discovery, the Pakistan Single Window and other relevant government institutions became involved in the reconciliation process. The objective was to identify the source of the differences, verify transaction-level information and ensure that import statistics accurately reflected the country’s external trade.
The matter later attracted the attention of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has been closely monitoring Pakistan’s economic data and statistical reporting under its reform programme.
IMF seeks greater transparency
The IMF had previously highlighted weaknesses in Pakistan’s procedures for collecting, compiling and consolidating import data. It called for improvements in the statistical framework and greater transparency about the scale and economic impact of the discrepancies.
Under the agreed reform requirements, the PBS was tasked with publishing revised monthly and annual import statistics by the end of August 2026. The statistical agency is also expected to provide an explanation of the changes and their impact on previously reported figures.
The revisions are particularly significant because imports are an important component of national accounts and external-sector statistics. Changes in import values can influence the calculation of GDP, trade balances, current account figures and other macroeconomic indicators.
GDP impact under review
The Ministry of Finance is examining the PBS report largely because of the potential impact of the revised import figures on national economic data. Officials are assessing how the changes could affect previously reported GDP estimates and other indicators based on import statistics.
The scale of the revisions means that the exercise could result in adjustments to historical economic data, depending on how the revised figures are incorporated into the national accounts.
Officials, however, are expected to provide further details once the Ministry of Finance completes its review and the PBS publishes the revised statistics.
IMF review mission approaching
The development comes ahead of the IMF’s next review of Pakistan’s economic reform programme. The Fund’s review mission under the country’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is expected to visit Pakistan by early September 2026.
The publication of revised import data before the mission’s arrival is likely to be closely watched, as strengthening the reliability and transparency of economic statistics remains an important element of Pakistan’s commitments under the IMF programme.
