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BEIJING: Global oil prices advanced on Wednesday as uncertainty surrounding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, coupled with attacks on commercial shipping in key Middle Eastern waterways, heightened concerns about disruptions to crude supplies. At 0553 GMT, Brent crude futures had gained 75 cents, or 0.84%, to reach $89.66 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 72 cents, or 0.87%, to $83.92 a barrel. Both benchmarks had climbed by more than $1 earlier in the session. The latest gains followed a strong rally on Tuesday, when both Brent and WTI settled more than $1 higher, reaching their highest closing levels since July 31. Oil prices had already surged around 5% on Monday as market participants became increasingly sceptical about the prospects of a US-Iran agreement to end the conflict. Concerns intensified after US President Donald Trump issued a fresh demand that Iran compensate people killed in wars, attacks and protests. Market analysts said the latest developments have left energy markets highly sensitive to changes in the US-Iran narrative. “The Middle East is increasingly becoming a seesaw between ‘deal’ and ‘war’,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova in Singapore, describing the resulting price swings as a pendulum moving between roughly $70 and $90 a barrel. Shipping Disruptions Add to Market Pressure Concerns over the safety of crude shipments were also reinforced after the United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks involving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, making any prolonged disruption there a major concern for global oil markets. Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei said the strategic waterway would remain closed unless Washington accepted Tehran’s conditions for ending the conflict. Those demands reportedly include the release of frozen Iranian assets and an end to other regional conflicts. Trump, meanwhile, has continued to send mixed signals about the US response, alternating between warnings of a tougher military approach and suggestions that an agreement could still be reached. The uncertainty has contributed to sharp swings in crude prices as traders attempt to assess whether the conflict will escalate or move towards negotiations. Sachdeva said markets could increasingly become accustomed to the frequent changes in the geopolitical narrative, creating a highly volatile environment for short-term traders and speculators. Hormuz Traffic Falls Sharply Shipping data highlighted the scale of the disruption. The number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell to only eight on Tuesday, according to shipping data cited in market reports. That compares with an estimated 125 to 140 vessels a day before the conflict, underscoring the extent to which security concerns have affected maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. A sustained reduction in shipping through Hormuz could have significant implications for global energy markets because the route handles a substantial share of international oil shipments. US Crude Inventories in Focus Despite geopolitical concerns, developments in the United States provided a counterweight to the bullish sentiment. A Reuters poll released on Tuesday had indicated that US crude and fuel inventories were expected to decline during the week ended August 7. However, market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a substantial increase in US crude stocks. According to the sources, US crude inventories increased by approximately 9.1 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks declined by around 1.5 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by approximately 596,000 barrels. The reported crude build was considerably larger than market expectations. If confirmed by official figures, the increase could ease concerns over tightness in the US oil market and potentially limit further price gains. Haitong Futures said in a market note that the unexpectedly large increase in crude inventories could reduce some of the supply-related pressure currently supporting oil prices. EIA Data Awaited Investors are now awaiting official inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy. The EIA’s weekly petroleum report is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. Market participants will closely examine the data for signs of changes in crude production, refinery activity, gasoline demand and commercial inventories. Any significant deviation from the API figures could trigger additional volatility in oil prices. Longer-Term Supply Risks Remain Beyond the immediate market reaction, longer-term concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions continue to provide support to crude prices. The EIA has estimated that disruptions to Middle Eastern crude supplies could amount to approximately 600,000 barrels per day and persist through the end of 2027. With geopolitical tensions still unresolved and shipping activity through major regional waterways significantly reduced, traders are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments involving the United States, Iran and regional armed groups.

Gold prices advanced nearly 1% on Wednesday as investors reduced expectations of further monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve and turned their attention to upcoming inflation figures that could provide fresh clues about the central bank’s next policy move. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,406.34 per ounce by 0330 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.6% to $4,466.70. The precious metal remained supported after recording strong gains in recent sessions, although prices faced technical resistance around the 100-day moving average. Gold had climbed to a 10-week high on Tuesday before retreating from the key technical level near $4,387 per ounce, marking its second decline this month. Market analysts said changing expectations for US interest rates were providing an important boost to bullion. “The primary driver for gold is the reduction in pricing of rate hikes by the Fed,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. He added that gold had also benefited from a technical breakout above the $4,200 level late last week, which helped strengthen upward momentum and encouraged further buying. Weaker jobs data shifts Fed expectations Gold’s recent rally has been supported by signs of cooling in the US labour market. Bullion recorded its strongest weekly performance since January on Friday after employment data came in weaker than expected, prompting traders to reassess expectations for further interest-rate increases. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets were pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a rate hike in September, compared with about 60% before the release of the jobs report. Investors are now awaiting the latest US Consumer Price Index figures, due later on Wednesday. The inflation report could have a significant impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions. A softer-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations for a less aggressive monetary policy stance, potentially providing additional support to gold. Conversely, stronger inflation could revive concerns about higher interest rates and put pressure on non-yielding assets. Gold typically benefits from lower interest rates because bullion does not generate interest income. When borrowing costs and bond yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold tends to fall, making the metal more attractive to investors. However, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee has cautioned that inflation remains a key concern. He said he was more worried about inflation remaining excessively high than about weakness in the labour market, highlighting the challenge facing policymakers as they balance price stability against employment conditions. Geopolitical tensions add to safe-haven demand Geopolitical developments in the Middle East also remained an important factor for financial markets. Oil prices extended their gains after the United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement reported separate attacks involving shipping on Tuesday. At the same time, hopes for an agreement to end the conflict involving Iran appeared to weaken. Iran has indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington agrees to its conditions, raising concerns over the potential impact on global energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for international oil shipments, and any prolonged disruption could increase energy prices and intensify inflationary pressures worldwide. Such uncertainty can also encourage demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Silver, platinum and palladium also advance Other precious metals followed gold higher during Wednesday’s session. Spot silver gained 1.2% to $65.46 per ounce. The metal remained below Tuesday’s peak, which marked its highest level since June 22. Platinum also strengthened, rising 0.6% to $1,754.10 per ounce, while palladium advanced 0.8% to $1,370.86.

The federal government has revived plans to restore Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM), signaling a major policy shift after previously deciding to wind up the loss-making state-owned enterprise. The development follows renewed interest from international parties in bringing the dormant steel producer back into operation, with Russian company Industrial Engineering LLC emerging as a key potential partner for the revival, modernisation and restructuring of the mill. Well-informed sources said the government has initiated consultations with the Russian firm to assess the technical, financial and operational requirements for restoring PSM’s production capacity. Two protocols have already been signed between Industrial Engineering LLC and Pakistan Steel Mills under the Ministry of Industries and Production. The first agreement was signed in Moscow on July 10, 2025, and provides a framework for cooperation on the revival, modernisation and restructuring of PSM. The second protocol was signed on November 26, 2025, during the 10th session of the Pakistan-Russia Intergovernmental Commission. The second agreement focuses on assessing the operational and capital expenditure required to restart manufacturing activities at the steel mill. Feasibility assessment under way According to sources, the authorities have also carried out an exercise to calculate production costs and evaluate the commercial viability of restarting PSM. The assessment is expected to help determine whether the mill can operate sustainably and compete in the domestic and international steel markets after years of inactivity. The findings will form the basis for recommendations to the government before a final decision is taken on the future structure and operations of the enterprise. Sources said the relevant authority would submit recommendations to the Cabinet Committee on State-Owned Enterprises (CCoSOEs), seeking an end to the liquidation process and approval to pursue the revival option with the participation of international investors. The move represents a reversal of the government’s earlier policy. Government had approved liquidation In May 2024, the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) had decided to scrap Pakistan Steel Mills after efforts to find a buyer failed to produce a viable offer. The Cabinet Committee on Rightsizing subsequently approved the liquidation of the existing mill in August 2024. However, the government has now shifted its focus towards rehabilitation, apparently encouraged by renewed international interest and the possibility of securing foreign technical and financial support. A formal summary regarding the proposed policy shift has been submitted to the Ministry of Industries and Production for consideration, sources said. A parliamentary secretary also indicated that the government’s policy direction had changed and that efforts were now being made to restore PSM to operational status. He said the timeline agreed upon with the Russian company would be followed, with the relevant departments expected to take further steps after completion of the ongoing assessments. Power minister signals renewed revival efforts Separately, Minister for Power Sardar Awais Leghari said recommendations for reviving Pakistan’s dormant steel giant would soon be presented to policymakers, reinforcing indications that the government is seriously reconsidering the future of PSM. Speaking at a webinar titled “Pakistan-Russia: Strengthening Trade, Education and Energy Collaboration,” jointly organised by the University of World Civilizations Moscow (UWCM) and the Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Leghari highlighted the growing momentum in Pakistan-Russia relations. He said bilateral ties had strengthened over the past two decades on the basis of mutual trust, respect and a shared interest in regional stability. The minister’s remarks come as Pakistan explores greater Russian involvement in key economic and industrial sectors, including the possible rehabilitation of PSM. Financial burden remains a challenge Pakistan Steel Mills has remained largely dormant for years, creating a continuing financial burden for the government. Following the earlier decision to wind up the enterprise, the government has continued to bear the salaries and other expenses of its remaining employees. Meanwhile, some of the mill’s liabilities and operating costs have been met through proceeds generated from the sale of scrap. The proposed revival could therefore provide an opportunity to turn the idle industrial asset into a productive enterprise while reducing the recurring financial burden on the national exchequer. However, the government is expected to carefully evaluate the mill’s outstanding liabilities, infrastructure requirements, production costs, technology needs and long-term market prospects before committing substantial public resources. If the revival plan moves forward with foreign participation, the project could also open the door to new investment, technology transfer and employment opportunities in Pakistan’s steel and related industrial sectors.