fiscal turnaroundor fiscal

Fiscal turnaround—or fiscal illusion?

The fiscal deficit fell to just 2.6 of GDP—the lowest in 22 years—while the primary surplus reached a record 2.9%, the highest since at least FY 2000-01tweet by Khurram Schehzad, Adviser to Federal Finance Minister

The latest official numbers tell an impressive story. Pakistan closed fiscal year 2025–26 with a consolidated budget deficit of Rs. 3.313 trillion, equal to 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), and a primary surplus of 2.9%. They accompany a familiar boast: the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) achieved a “record” collection of Rs. 13.010 trillion.

In the post cited above, Adviser to the Federal Finance Minister, Khurram Schehzad, described the outcome as the “strongest fiscal performance in 22 years”. He highlighted three consecutive primary surpluses, the “lowest fiscal deficit in 22 years”, and the highest primary surplus in at least 26 years, debt growth at a 20-year low, and declining debt-to-GDP and interest burdens.

He concluded that Pakistan was moving decisively from recurring fiscal stress towards discipline, stability and sustainable growth. The improvement is real. The conclusion is premature.

The Finance Division’s newly released Fiscal Operations for July–June 2025–26 show consolidated revenue of Rs. 19.774 trillion and expenditure of Rs. 23.087 trillion. The resulting deficit is unquestionably lower than the enormous gaps of recent years.

Fiscal consolidation has occurred and should be acknowledged. The claim of a 22-year low, however, does not survive the adviser’s own infographic.

The chart accompanying the post places the deficit at 1.7% in 2003–04 and 2.5% in 2004–05—both below 2.6%. The contemporaneous Pakistan Economic Survey 2006–07, using the series then published, recorded 2.4% for 2003–04.

Revisions may explain the discrepancy between 1.7% and 2.4%, but neither figure supports an unqualified record claim. The latest statement is also provisional. The defensible description is that 2.6% is among the lowest deficits in about two decades.

More importantly, 2.6% is the consolidated deficit. The federation did not run a deficit of Rs. 3.313 trillion. Its net revenue receipts, after transfers to provinces, were Rs. 10.520 trillion, against expenditure of Rs. 15.283 trillion.

The federal deficit was Rs. 4.763 trillion, or about 3.8% of GDP. It fell to the consolidated figure because the provinces produced a combined surplus of Rs. 1.450 trillion. Punjab alone contributed Rs. 914 billion.

Provincial surpluses assist macroeconomic management but do not extinguish the federation’s borrowing requirement. They are intergovernmental cash offsets while the federal government remains deeply indebted. The earlier article, Bankruptcy of ideas—X: Debt, Taxes & Democracy, argues that shifting cash between tiers cannot repair a debt-driven state.

An even more striking adjustment appears under “statistical discrepancy”. The detailed expenditure table reports total consolidated expenditure of Rs. 23.940 trillion. A negative statistical discrepancy of Rs. 853 billion lowers expenditure in the summary to Rs. 23.087 trillion. Without this adjustment, the gap between revenue and expenditure would be about Rs. 4.167 trillion, or approximately 3.3% of GDP.

Statistical discrepancies are not unusual in provisional accounts. An adjustment equal to more than one-quarter of the celebrated deficit nevertheless demands explanation before a historic record is proclaimed. Transparency requires reconciliation of this amount when the accounts are finalised.

The composition of expenditure further weakens the triumphal narrative. Mark-up payments reached Rs. 6.948 trillion—5.5% of GDP. Federal Public Sector Development Programme expenditure, excluding development grants to provinces, was only Rs. 727 billion. Interest was therefore about 9.6 times the federal development programme. A deficit can fall because investment and public services are compressed while inherited interest obligations continue dominating expenditure. That is fiscal compression, not fiscal transformation.

The “record” FBR’s collection claim presents a similar illusion. With inflation and nominal GDP growth, the largest rupee collection will normally recur. The relevant questions are whether revenue rose relative to GDP, the base broadened and additional taxation reduced borrowing.

FBR’s Rs. 13.010 trillion was only 10.3% of GDP. It was about Rs. 1.12 trillion below the original target of Rs. 14.13 trillion and barely exceeded the subsequently revised figure of approximately Rs. 12.983 trillion. The goalpost was moved, and arrival at the moved goalpost was described as a record.

Analysis of Pakistan’s withholding-based system [Tax Proposals for Budget 2027—III: Withholdingisation: Weapon of destruction, Minute Mirror, May 25, 2026 and FBR’s Performance FY 2024-25 (Part II): Income Tax or Expropriatory Taxation, Minute Mirror, April 14, 2026] has repeatedly shown why aggregate collection cannot be equated with administrative performance.

During FY 2024–25, withholding and advance collection accounted for about 96% of income tax, leaving only a small fraction attributable to returns and enforcement.

Employers, banks, utilities, importers and businesses collect much of FBR’s revenue on behalf of the state. Extraction at source is not evidence that concealed income has been discovered or that privileged sectors have entered the tax net.

The latest statement also exposes reliance on non-tax revenue. Federal non-tax receipts reached Rs. 5.178 trillion. These included Rs. 2.428 trillion transferred as State Bank of Pakistan surplus and Rs.1.567 trillion collected as petroleum levy. Together, the two sources provided almost Rs. 4 trillion.

As explained in Bankruptcy of ideas—VII: The Petroleum (Levy) State, the petrolem levy operates as inflationary and regressive extraction. It raises transport, agricultural, industrial and household costs. It also remains outside the divisible pool, allowing the federation to retain revenue that would otherwise be shared under the National Finance Commission framework. A large central-bank transfer and an ever-rising fuel levy cannot substitute for fair, broad-based taxation.

Debt servicing supplies the decisive test. Cash mark-up payments of Rs. 6.948 trillion absorbed 53.4% of FBR collection and about 66% of federal net revenue receipts. Domestic interest alone was Rs. 6.030 trillion; foreign interest was Rs. 917 billion. These figures do not include refinancing of maturing domestic principal.

The financing table reports gross external financing of Rs. 3.805 trillion and external debt repayments of Rs. 2.627 trillion. Programme loans alone amounted to Rs. 2.054 trillion. The federal deficit required net financing of Rs. 4.763 trillion: Rs. 1.178 trillion externally and Rs. 3.585 trillion domestically. State Bank financing reached Rs. 3.202 trillion. These amounts reveal continued dependence on creditors and domestic banks. Slower debt growth is welcome; continuing debt dependence is not fiscal sovereignty.

The primary surplus of Rs. 3.634 trillion, or 2.9% of GDP, must also be interpreted correctly. It shows that revenue exceeded non-interest expenditure. It simultaneously exposes the debt trap: after interest of Rs. 6.948 trillion was added, the primary surplus turned into the consolidated deficit of Rs. 3.313 trillion.

Present taxpayers and public expenditure were squeezed to meet obligations created by past borrowing. This conclusion is consistent with earlier work on fiscal illusion and the wider argument developed in A perpetual fiscal debacle.

Pakistan’s fiscal disorder is not caused merely by insufficient taxation. It arises from unproductive expenditure, tax expenditures, state-owned-enterprise losses, energy-sector inefficiencies, privileges, weak local government and borrowing without development.

Genuine success would require a sustained decline in federal borrowing; interest growing more slowly than revenue; reduced reliance on programme loans and banks; tax-to-GDP growth through broadening rather than withholding; transparent accounting for refunds, arrears and discrepancies; and protection of development and social services. This is ultimately a question of constitutional political economy.

Fiscal policy determines who bears public burdens, which institutions receive resources and whether borrowing finances future productive capacity or present privilege.

A lower accounting ratio has limited democratic value when citizens receive fewer public goods while creditors acquire an ever-larger prior claim over national revenue.

The proper verdict is measured but firm. The adviser is right that fiscal consolidation occurred, three consecutive primary surpluses matter, and the latest surplus is exceptional. His infographic does not establish a 22-year-low deficit, while the claim that record FBR collection proves structural reform remains a myth.

Pakistan still borrowed trillions, paid nearly Rs. 7 trillion in interest, relied on loans and non-tax extraction, and reached 2.6% after provincial surpluses and a large negative statistical discrepancy.

A state cannot borrow to service debt, suppress development, tax the already taxed and then declare fiscal victory because the resulting deficit ratio is smaller. The arithmetic has improved. The fiscal order has not been reconstructed.

_______________________________________________________________________

Dr. Ikramul Haq, Advocate Supreme Court, specializes in constitutional, corporate, environment, media, ML/CFT related laws, IT, intellectual property, arbitration and international tax laws.  He holds an LLD in tax laws with specialization in transfer pricing.

He was full-time journalist from 1979 to 1984 with Viewpoint and Dawn. He served Civil Services of Pakistan from 1984 to 1996.

He established Huzaima & Ikram in 1996 and is presently its chief partner. He studied journalism, English literature and law. He is Chief Editor of TaxationHe is country editor and correspondent of International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation (IBFD) and member of International Fiscal Association (IFA).  He is Visiting Faculty at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) and member Advisory Board and Visiting Senior Fellow of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE).

He has coauthored with Huzaima Bukhari many books that include, Tax Reforms in Pakistan: Historic & Critical Review, Towards Broad, Flat, Low-rate, and Predictable Taxes (third edition, 2024),  Pakistan: Enigma of Taxation, Towards Flat, Low-rate, Broad and Predictable Taxes (revised/enlarged edition of December 2020), Law & Practice of Income Tax, Law , Practice of Sales Tax, Law and Practice of Corporate Law, Law & Practice of Federal Excise, Law & Practice of Sales Tax on Services, Federal Tax Laws of Pakistan, Provincial Tax Laws, Practical Handbook of Income Tax, Tax Laws of Pakistan, Principles of Income Tax with Glossary and Master Tax Guide, Income Tax Digest 1886-2011 (with judicial analysis).

He is author of Commentary on Avoidance of Double Taxation Agreements, Pakistan: From Hash to Heroin, its sequel Pakistan: Drug-trap to Debt-trap and Practical Handbook of Income Tax. Two books of poetry are Phull Kikkaran De (Punjabi 2023) and Nai Ufaq (Urdu 1979 with Siraj Munir and Shahid Jamal).

He regularly writes columns/article/papers for many Pakistani newspapers and international journals and has contributed over 3000 articles on a variety of issues of public interest, printed in various journals, magazines and newspapers at home and abroad.

_______________________________________________________________

Abdul Rauf Shakoori, Advocate High Court, is a subject-matter expert on AML-CFT, Compliance, Cyber Crime and Risk Management. He has been providing AML-CFT advisory and training services to financial institutions (banks, DNFBPs, Investment companies, Money Service Businesses, insurance companies and securities), government institutions including law enforcement agencies located in North America (USA & CANADA), Middle East and Pakistan.

His areas of expertise include legal, strategic planning, cross-border transactions including but not limited to joint ventures (JVs), mergers & acquisitions (M&A), takeovers, privatizations, overseas expansions, USA Patriot Act, Banking Secrecy Act, Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Over his career he has demonstrated excellent leadership, communication, analytical, and problem-solving skills and have also developed and delivered training courses in the areas of AML/CFT, Compliance, Fraud & Financial Crime Risk Management, Bank Secrecy, Cyber Crimes & Internet Threats against Banks, E–Channels Fraud Prevention, Security and Investigation of Financial Crimes. The courses have been delivered as practical workshops with case study driven scenarios and exams to ensure knowledge transfer.

His notable publications are Rauf’s Compilation of Corporate Laws of Pakistan, Rauf’s Company Law and Practice of Pakistan and Rauf’s Research on Labour Laws and Income Tax and others.

His articles include: Revenue collection: Contemporary targets vs. orthodox approach, It is time to say goodbye to our past, US double standards, Was Due Process Flouted While Convicting Nawaz Sharif?, FATF and unjustly grey listed Pakistan, Corruption is no excuse for Incompetence, Next step for Pakistan, Pakistan’s compliance with FATF mandates, a work in progress, Pakistan’s strategy to address FATF Mandates was Inadequate, Pakistan’s Evolving FATF Compliance, Transparency Curtails Corruption, Pakistan’s Long Road towards FATF Compliance, Pakistan’s Archaic Approach to Addressing FATF Mandates, FATF: Challenges for June deadline, Pakistan: Combating the illicit flow of money, Regulating Crypto: An uphill task for Pakistan. Pakistan’s economy – Chicanery of numbers. Pakistan: Reclaiming its space on FATF whitelist. Sacred Games: Kulbhushan Jadhav Case. National FATF secretariat and Financial Monitoring Unit. The FATF challenge. Pakistan: Crucial FATF hearing. Pakistan: Dissecting FATF Failure, Environmental crimes: An emerging challenge, Countering corrupt practices .

The recent publication, coauthored by these writes with Huzaima Bukhari is:                       

Pakistan Tackling FATF: Challenges & Solutions, available at:

https://aacp.com.pk/book-detail/pakistan-tackling-fatf-challenges-and-solutions-35

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08RXH8W46

Similar Posts

  • Gujrat: The Height of the Akbari Fort and the Trag…

    When rain descends from the folds of clouds, it assumes the form of divine mercy for the earth—reviving parched soil and spreading smiles across the weary faces of farmers. Yet, when this very rain turns unbridled and the administrative apparatus built to welcome it pulls a heavy shroud of negligence over its eyes, this descent of mercy transforms into a harrowing shape of torment and sudden calamity. Gujrat, a historic and industrial city of Punjab that holds a unique global identity through its civilizational expanse, skilled artisans, and proximity to the Chenab River, presents the terrifying spectacle of a pond and a swamp every monsoon season. Here, urban flooding is no longer merely a climatic accident; rather, it has become a chilling confession of administrative apathy, unscientific planning, and a criminal denial of historical geographical realities. When the hydrological management of cities is evaluated on a global scale, the concepts of “Sponge Cities” are put into practice, but our reality stands in stark opposition. When the state of urban drainage in Gujrat is objectively reviewed through the corridors of history, one’s eyes are opened to the bitter truth that the rulers and elements who dominated this city consciously hollowed out its roots at every level for the gratification of greed. The city’s drainage and sewerage system, in particular, fell prey to the plunder of commission agents belonging to the corruption mafia. It is an immensely agonizing chapter of history that two decades ago, when a renowned international Japanese company completed a detailed survey of Gujrat, officially announced its complete reconstruction on modern lines, and promised a world-class drainage system, the hungry brokers sitting in the echelons of power burnt this magnificent project in the fire of personal lust. The people of Gujrat can never forget the actors who sacrificed the Japanese company’s dream at the altar of kickbacks. Later, when times changed and Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi assumed the helm of this region as Chief Minister, he released heavy, voluminous funds amounting to billions of rupees to radically improve and modernize Gujrat’s decrepit and worn-out drainage system. Yet the tragedy was that these billions of rupees in Gujrat’s history remained restricted to a few specific and powerful pockets, and to openly divide these funds, the entire system was mortgaged to a fostered contractor mafia. With an exceptionally substandard, superficial, and unprofessional approach, this mafia played a game of window-dressing that instead of fixing Gujrat’s sewerage system, ruined it permanently and turned the entire city into an artificial swamp. Today, the agony of drainage dancing through the city’s streets and roads offers no hope of deliverance from this terrifying urban flood unless a severe accountability of these true, deceitful culprits is carried out. The political leadership that followed also made efforts suited to their respective statures for the betterment of the city; and although their own technical errors consistently hampered this improvement, every resident of Gujrat continues to carry the heavy burden of those primary sinners who devastated Gujrat’s history, civilization, and urbanity. Last year, when urban flooding once again descended upon the city as a mortal torment, uproar echoed everywhere, the wheel of life halted, and the situation reached a point where the Chief Minister of Punjab had to personally make an emergency visit to Gujrat to rescue the district administration from this storm of incompetence. During this visit, a heavy downpour of announcements and promises took place, accompanied by the release of special funds worth billions for complete and sustainable improvement next year. Despite the sincere efforts and financial provisions of Honorable Maryam Nawaz Sharif, the district administration—entrenched in a colonial mindset—spent all its energies throughout the year on personal image-building and photo sessions rather than the timely completion of this vital sewerage project. As ill luck would have it, as soon as the monsoon season arrived once again this year, the colorful balloon of good governance and claims deflated entirely, exposing the bitter reality that this malaise of flawed planning persists and rainwater continues to rain down as a torment upon citizens’ lives. And when this rainwater has already devastated citizens’ lives, wounding their homes and businesses, only then do the traditional efforts of WASA and district institutions begin to bear fruit, with water finally receding from the streets after prolonged suffering. Success drums are then beaten over this very temporary performance, adding salt to the injuries of the citizens. A profound study of Gujrat’s urban geography reveals that its foundations and topography are deeply embedded in its centuries-old historical backdrop. Built during the Mughal era, the Akbari Fort serves as the greatest metaphor for the region’s military, political, and administrative history. Viewed from a geographical and topographical standpoint, the Akbari Fort is situated on a relatively high mound or plateau, and the city’s older structural layout spreads outward from this height in gradual slopes in all directions. Principally and naturally, this elevation of the fort and the surrounding natural slopes should have stood as an exceptional geographical blessing for a drainage system—provided the natural pathways of water flow had been preserved and left unmolested by grotesque tampering. The tragedy, however, is that over time, unbridled urban expansion and a flood of encroachments mutilated this natural sloping system so ruthlessly that today, that very height and slope have turned into a bane for the city. Unchecked commercialization and illegal constructions in and around the Akbari Fort and its adjoining low-lying areas have blocked all traditional water routes in such a manner that water finds no outlet. The consequence is that when rainwater flows down from the elevated parts of the fort, instead of finding an open path or paved drain ahead, it encounters dead alleys, narrow sewage pipelines, and an endless siege of encroachments. Consequently, this water accumulates in lower regions to form a permanent lake, leaving city residents weeping over their helplessness. Gujrat’s tragedy is not merely the accumulation of rainwater; it is a reflection of that collective apathy and corruption which wakes up with the arrival

  • Power Behind the Scenes

    By Tuba Khan Informal networks represent an extremely important yet widely ignored aspect of governance, especially within developing nations whose formal administrative apparatus is either weak or disputed. Informal institutions refer to uncodified norms and traditions that influence decision-making processes in ways beyond the reach of legal processes. As far as the informal networks are concerned, they can include networks of patronage, kinship and alliances based on personal connections. In countries with hybrid governance structures such as Pakistan where formalized democratic mechanisms co-exist with informal structures, a clear distinction between formal institutions from informal institutions must be made for effective governance. In Pakistan, informal networks do not exist in parallel with institutionalized structures of governance; they actually become the central point around which power operates. Despite having formal governmental structures intact, the informal networks become quite important and influential. There exists a high level of interaction between political, military, bureaucratic and commercial elites. The origins of the informal networks in Pakistan’s governance system are rooted in the colonial era when the governance system of the British was based mainly on the principles of indirect governance. Alongside formal institutionalized structures of governance, the colonial rulers gave powers to local intermediaries in the form of local landlords, tribal chieftains and other local power-brokers. This led to the development of patronage systems and kinship power, which were based on caste and biradari relations. Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has experienced a very weak governance system. In the absence of stable and fully consolidated democratic institutions, the informal networks took on greater importance in political activities. These informal networks were strengthened by the repeated involvement of the powerful actors in political matters. The periods of outright military takeover or indirect control through civilian regimes cemented a structure where important decisions were frequently taken without recourse to institutionalized processes. The military, along with bureaucrats and politicians, established networks that could affect the policy agenda, political succession and even national interests. Resultantly, this trend continued to blur the lines between formal and informal authority. Islamization strategies of the 1970s and 1980s further broadened the informal networks by involving religious figures in the politics of Pakistan. Religious leaders can trigger religious sentiments and thus influence public opinion according to the needs of influential networks. So, in many cases, the government depended on the clergy and their organizations to mobilize mass support, which gave rise to interchanges of mutual benefits between religious and political authorities. Since the 1990s, liberalization in the economy and growth of the media industry have introduced new players into informal networks. Informal networks have several mechanisms within Pakistan through which they exercise their authority. Patronage stands out as one such mechanism where rewards and resources, such as employment opportunities within the public sector, campaign financing and even electoral loyalty are offered in exchange for support. On the other hand, back-channel negotiations conducted outside formal channels, such as Parliament and cabinet meetings, are vital in influencing the decision-making process of the state. Furthermore, elites are capable of hijacking policy-making processes and diverting resources in ways beneficial to themselves. Additionally, the media often mobilize people and give political power some form of moral legitimacy through propaganda. There are many implications of the existence of informal networks on the efficiency of the governance process. One of the major impacts is the undermining of formal institutional structures and electoral practices. Checks and balances, as well as the legislative process itself are often ignored or used solely for show purposes, while the real process of decision-making is handled through the use of private contacts and backdoor diplomacy. Another important implication is that the culture of corruption and inefficiency continues to persist. Patronage-driven systems tend to give preference to loyalty as opposed to competence, which leads to the appointment of people and the distribution of resources in a manner that is unrelated to development and the needs of the people at large. Policies tend to be revised according to changes in the interests of those in positions of authority, ultimately hindering the way to stability. To counter the effects of informal networks in Pakistan, the gradual development of formal institutions needs to take place instead of abruptly altering the current political environment. The starting point for designing a reform package is to redefine the role of the state. It is critical to ensure institutional independence, transparency of decision-making processes, meritocracy, citizen participation, press freedom and the accountability for the excessive influence of religious and economic elites to decrease dependence on informal institutions. Prevalence of informal political institutions in Pakistan causes several problems for the country’s political system. Formal institutions are often sidelined or rendered symbolic, leading to policy inconsistency and the undermining of democratic accountability. Nevertheless, the existence of informal groups is entrenched in the system and cannot be completely eliminated, their impact can be progressively restricted. This serves as an indication that reforms should be incremental and continuous

  • Ebola Outbreak-The deadly Epidemic

    By Saman Aftab The Ebola outbreak in DRC is not getting the required traction from the world despite being categorized as the fastest growing infection so far recorded by the World Health Organization (WHO). Before diving deep into the threats posed by this disease, it is imperative to provide the readers with an overview of this viral infection. An Overview of Ebola Outbreak The Bundibugyo virus, one of the Orthoebolavirus species is responsible for causing severe Ebola disease known as Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD). It is a zoonotic disease, with fruit bats suspected to be the natural reservoir.  With the close contact of a human to the blood or secretions of infected wildlife (including bats or non-human primates), the human gets the infection. Consequently, the infection spreads from one human to other through direct contact with the blood, bodily secretions, and organs of the infected ones. The viral infection can also spread through close contact with the surfaces and materials contaminated with the bodily secretions of the infected individuals. Very similar to the Corona virus, the spread of this infection is particularly high in health-care settings having inadequate sterilization measures in place. Moreover, a direct contact with the infected deceased individuals during their burial can contribute to its spread as well. Incubation period and Clinical symptoms The incubation period for BVD ranges from 2 to 21 days, and infected individuals are not infectious until symptom onset. Fever, fatigue, muscle pain, headache, and sore throat may represent as the early symptoms of this disease. But the non-specific nature of these symptoms often makes the diagnosis difficult resulting in delayed detection. Without early detection, the symptoms of this disease aggravate leading to gastrointestinal symptoms and organ dysfunction. In some cases, haemorrhagic manifestations may also occur in the infected individuals. Diagnosis and Treatment In the absence of confirmatory tests such as Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) or antigen- or antibody-based assays in the laboratory, it becomes a challenge for the health care professionals to differentiate BVD from other endemic febrile illnesses such as malaria. Outbreak control depends on early detection, isolation and care, contact tracing, safe burials and strong community engagement. Since there are no approved vaccines or specific treatments available for BVD, the current mortality rate of 44% to 46% for this disease poses a great threat to the affected communities. Current situation of Ebola outbreak Ebola, which spreads through contact with bodily fluids and causes a hemorrhagic fever, has killed more than 15,000 people in Africa over the past 50 years. As per the reports of international media outlets, the Ebola outbreak in DR Congo has spread to sixth province as death toll passes 2,100 with 4665 confirmed Ebola cases. The World Health Organization has already warned about its pace- the Ebola epidemic, already the deadliest in the country’s history, is spreading faster than any previous Ebola outbreak. Until now, five Congolese provinces had recorded cases: Ituri, which borders Uganda and South Sudan, North Kivu and South Kivu, Haut-Uélé and Tshopo. The risk of cross-border spread of this infection primarily to Uganda and South Sudan is very high. To make things worse, the response to contain this virus in the DRC is hampered by stretched health services, insufficient clean water and safe toilets. Some of the provinces where Ebola is present are densely populated and have only a weak government presence and largely lacking health infrastructure. North Kivu and South Kivu are also split by the front lines between the Congolese army and the anti-government armed group M23, backed by Rwanda, which has seized vast swathes of territory. This makes the conflict-ridden territory extremely prone to viral spread. Should we be worried? According to WHO official statement, the organization hopes to reverse the spread of this deadly virus in DRC within a span of three months with proper medical intervention. However, the pace with which it is spreading within DRC and bordering areas, it is quintessential to take some preventive measures. Since the globalization of the world was primarily responsible for Covid-19 pandemic, it is essential to have preparedness in advance. The healthcare authorities should establish proper communication channel with their counterparts in DRC to have real time data in hand. Similarly, a stock of screening kits should be maintained in the repository. In our airports and seaports, no preventive measures are in place for the screening of any such disease. To put things into perspective, our agencies working in the airports handle body search of persons and their belongings with no protective gears. They do not even wear any mask while dealing with international flights. Most of the time, those passengers who present with clinical symptoms of disease like coughing, flu or fever tend to wear no mask. This puts the fellow passengers and the airport authorities at risk of many diseases. Therefore, the government should take proper measures in this regard. The seaport and airport personnel should be trained to wear masks and protective gear while handling the flights coming from DRC directly or indirectly. Proper screening booths should be installed having health care professionals equipped with medical kits and personal protective gear. There should be proper sanitization within the airports and seaports vicinities. All these measures will put us in a better position to prevent many contagious diseases beforehand. Prevention should be the top most priority of our health care system only then we can envisage a healthy future. In the end, let us hope the viral infection in DRC subsides before getting out of control.                  

  • A Second Great Wall of Trust: Why Only China Can F…

    By General Ghulam Mustafa & Arshad H Abbasi  We have stood together at the foot of the Great Wall of China more than once at different times, but today a thought has returned to both of us, unspoken until now. The Wall runs some 21,196 kilometres across dynasties and deserts, built stone by stone over centuries to secure a civilization’s frontier. Pakistan’s own most dangerous frontier — the Durand Line separating us from Afghanistan — runs roughly 2,625 kilometres, barely an eighth of that length. If a civilization on the scale of China could raise a barrier of that magnitude with the tools of the third century BC, then securing a border less than an eighth as long, with the tools of the twenty-first century, cannot be beyond the reach of the partnership Beijing and Islamabad have built. We do not ask China to build us a wall of stone. We ask Beijing to help us build something sturdier: a wall of enforced accountability against the militants using Afghan soil to bleed Pakistan dry. That bleeding is not a metaphor. Since the Afghan Taliban returned to power in Kabul, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has operated with a freedom of movement across our western border that it never enjoyed before. Balochistan burns. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa buries its soldiers and its schoolchildren in the same week. And now the shockwaves have reached Punjab, the country’s demographic and economic core. Every honest accounting of this violence traces back to the same source: sanctuary, training, and logistical freedom on Afghan soil, tolerated or unchecked by an administration in Kabul that owes its survival, in no small part, to Chinese patience and Chinese capital. This is why we write to Beijing, and to Beijing specifically, rather than to Washington, Brussels, or Moscow. Survey after survey inside Pakistan finds that well over eight in ten of our citizens consider China, not any Western power, to be Pakistan’s true friend. Our leaders have called this friendship higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the ocean, and we do not repeat that line as ceremony. We repeat it because it is the only frame in which Beijing can hear what we are about to say plainly: no other country on earth holds the leverage over the Taliban that China holds, and no other country has more to lose from squandering it. Consider what China has already built in Afghanistan without formal recognition of its government. The Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company signed a twenty-five-year contract to develop the Amu Darya oil basin, committing roughly $150 million annually and scaling toward $540 million over three years. State-backed firms continue to negotiate the long-stalled Mes Aynak copper concession, one of the largest untapped copper deposits on earth, alongside serious interest in Afghan lithium and iron ore. Beijing has cut tariffs on 98 % of Afghan imports. An active Chinese embassy operates in Kabul today, accepting Taliban-appointed diplomats, even as formal recognition is withheld. This is not incidental engagement. This is the deepest economic relationship any major power currently has with the Taliban administration, and it gives China something no airstrike or sanction regime has ever given anyone: the ability to make continued investment conditional on results. We are asking Beijing to use that leverage with the same discipline it has already shown in defending its own security interests. China has made clear, repeatedly and without apology, that it will not tolerate the Turkistan Islamic Party or East Turkistan Islamic Movement fighters operating from Afghan territory against Xinjiang. We are asking only that China extend that identical, non-negotiable standard to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its allied networks operating against us. If Kabul can be made to understand that Chinese mining contracts, Chinese tariff relief, and Chinese diplomatic cover all depend on a genuine, verifiable crackdown on TTP sanctuaries, this insurgency does not need years to end. It needs a Kabul administration that finally has more to lose from harbouring militants than from disowning them. But security pressure alone will not hold, and here we want to be honest about what Afghanistan actually needs from its neighbours, China chief among them. Afghanistan’s national literacy rate stands at just 37 % — 52 % among men, a mere 27 % among women — and UNESCO reports that more than nine in ten ten-year-olds in the country cannot read a simple sentence. Two point two million adolescent girls remain locked out of secondary school entirely, the only country on earth to enforce such a ban, at a projected cost to Afghanistan’s own economy of nearly $9.6 billion in lost potential by 2066. No pipeline, no copper mine, and no railway line will stabilize a country where the next generation cannot read the contracts, safety manuals, or engineering plans that would let them run these projects themselves. It is China’s duty, as the neighbour with the deepest economic stake and the clearest long-term interest in a stable Afghanistan, to make literacy, vocational training, and the reopening of girls’ education a hard condition of its investment — not out of charity, but because an illiterate, disenfranchised population is the same population the TTP and ETIM recruit from. Afghanistan does not need a foreign army. It needs classrooms, teachers, and a workforce equipped to build the country’s own future, backed by an investor patient and disciplined enough to insist on it. Every failed intervention in Afghanistan’s modern history has shared the same flaw: outsiders who came to fight a war, not to build a neighbour. Britain came and left. The Soviet Union came and left, at ruinous cost to itself. NATO and the United States spent two decades and did not leave functioning institutions behind them. China is different in the one respect that matters most: China is not leaving. It shares a border with Afghanistan. Its investments are measured in decades, not electoral cycles. And it has, through the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, already built the template for what real

  • Justice Begins with the Well-being of Judges

    When we talk about justice, we usually think about independent courts, fair and speedy decisions, and honest judges. But we often forget one important question: What about the justice-sector people behind all this? Judges have one of the most demanding jobs in society. Every day, they decide cases that affect people’s lives, freedom, families, businesses, property, and rights. They are expected to remain fair, independent, and impartial, no matter how difficult or ‘high profile’ the case may be. To recognize the importance of supporting judges, the United Nations General Assembly declared 25 July as the International Day for Judicial Well-being in March 2025. Judges also need healthy and supportive working conditions to perform their duties effectively. Being a judge is not easy. Many judges face heavy workloads, long working hours, difficult and emotionally charged cases, public criticism, security risks, and administrative responsibilities. These challenges can affect their physical and mental health. When judges are under constant stress, it can also affect the quality and speed of justice. Looking after judges is therefore not a personal favour; it helps the entire justice system. Healthy and motivated judges are better able to make fair decisions, uphold the rule of law, and maintain public confidence in the courts. The idea of judicial well-being gained international attention with the adoption of the Nauru Declaration on Judicial Well-being on 25 July 2024. The Nauru Declaration on Judicial Well-being is founded on seven guiding principles: (1) judicial well-being is essential to judicial independence and the effective administration of justice; (2) judicial stress should be recognized without stigma; (3) promoting judicial well-being is a shared responsibility of judges and judicial institutions; (4) courts should foster an ethical, respectful, and inclusive judicial culture; (5) awareness, education, prevention, and support measures should be encouraged; (6) each jurisdiction should develop well-being initiatives suited to its own needs and circumstances; and (7) all efforts to promote judicial well-being should respect human rights and fundamental freedoms. A 2021 survey by the Global Judicial Integrity Network of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), involving judges from more than 100 countries, highlights the growing importance of judicial well-being. The survey found that 76% of judges lack enough time to care for their physical and mental health, 92% experience work-related stress, 89% know colleagues suffering from stress or anxiety, 69% believe mental health remains a taboo subject in the judiciary, 83% say their court systems provide insufficient support, and 97% believe judicial well-being deserves greater attention. Judges also reported that poor well-being affects the efficiency of courts, the quality of judicial decisions, public confidence in the judiciary, access to justice, judicial integrity, and procedural fairness. These findings show that judges around the world face similar challenges. When judges receive proper support, they are better able to make fair and balanced decisions; work more efficiently; maintain high ethical standards; resist outside pressure; and strengthen public confidence in the courts. Supporting judges means strengthening the rule of law and improving the delivery of justice. Governments and judicial institutions should take practical steps to improve judicial well-being. These include reducing excessive workloads; providing confidential counselling and mental health services; creating peer-support programmes; offering leadership and well-being training; protecting judges from harassment and intimidation; and ensuring safe and healthy working environments. It is also important to create a culture where judges feel comfortable seeking support when they need it. In Pakistan, judges work under immense psychological pressure. The rapid growth of social media has changed the environment in which justice is delivered. Cases that are still pending before the courts are frequently debated online, with people openly expressing opinions and expecting decisions that match their own views. Such public discussion creates pressure on judges, even if it does not influence their legal reasoning or final decisions. Many judges are also present on social media or are more visible in public life than in the past. Their participation in public events and increased interaction with society have reduced the professional distance that traditionally existed between judges and the public. While greater engagement has its benefits, it also exposes judges to public criticism, expectations, and scrutiny, which can affect their psychological well-being. For a judge, there should be no distinction between an ordinary case and a so-called ‘high-profile case.’ Article 25 of the Constitution of Pakistan guarantees that all citizens are equal before the law. Every case deserves the same attention, fairness, and impartiality. However, media coverage and public opinion often create the perception that certain cases are more important than others. Even where judges remain completely independent, such external attention can create significant psychological pressure. Another challenge is public perception of the justice system. Justice is delivered by many institutions, including the police, prosecution, lawyers, prison authorities, investigators, and the courts. Delays and weaknesses often result from failures across the entire justice sector. Yet, when justice is delayed, or public confidence declines, the criticism is directed mainly at the judiciary. Judges become the visible face of the justice system and bear the burden of public dissatisfaction, even when the causes lie beyond the courts. This constant scrutiny, criticism, and pressure can affect judges’ morale and well-being. Pakistan has recently taken an important step by placing judicial well-being on the national agenda. To mark the International Day for Judicial Wellbeing, the Law and Justice Commission of Pakistan will organize the country’s first National Conference on Judicial Wellbeing at the Supreme Court of Pakistan on 25 July 2026. This initiative is a welcome beginning. However, promoting judicial well-being should become a permanent part of judicial reform rather than a one-day observance. Protecting judges’ well-being ultimately strengthens the rule of law and improves public confidence in the administration of justice. Justice is delivered by people. Judges are expected to remain fair, calm, independent, and ethical while making decisions that can change people’s lives. They can perform this important role best when their own well-being is protected.

  • Why rigging and violence in Pakistani Kashmir?

    Elections are currently being held in Pakistani-administered Kashmir (POK), and their results have already become controversial at the very first stage. Gilgit-Baltistan, which is essentially also part of Kashmir, held elections recently. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) won there, while the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party also received some seats, and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) won fewer seats. Despite this, the PML-N accepted the results and fully cooperated in the formation of the government. In the first phase of elections in Mirpur, however, the PML-N won nine seats, while Bilawal’s PPP secured four. Despite winning four seats, the PPP immediately began raising allegations of rigging. Even more painful is the fact that these elections have been marked by bloodshed. During clashes surrounding the long march of the banned Awami Action Party, one Rangers personnel was killed and five police officers were confirmed injured. The Awami Action Committee, meanwhile, claims that its protesters came under firing, resulting in the deaths of 14 of its workers. The number of people killed or injured from the Awami Action Committee has not been officially confirmed. However, if government personnel have been killed and injured, it is reasonable to assume that protesters also suffered casualties. The question now is what should be made of the rigging allegations being levelled by the PPP and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. If one side refuses to accept the election results and uses such harsh language against the other side, could the situation not deteriorate further? From a strategic perspective, it would have been better to hold the entire election on a single day. The total number of voters is not so large that the process needed to be stretched out in this manner. The second phase is scheduled for August 2, followed by the third phase on August 10, as if this were a battlefield. Bilawal should also think beyond repeatedly raising the issue of rigging. At present, his own party is in power in Kashmir. The deputy commissioners, assistant commissioners and other officials were appointed by the ruling party. So who has greater opportunities to influence elections—the ruling party or the opposition? Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz conducted an effective election campaign during the final days. However, the writer believes it was not befitting of a three-time elected Pakistani prime minister to say words to the effect of: “I will ask my brother Shehbaz Sharif to make me the prime minister of Kashmir, and I will solve all its problems.” Instead, he should have said that whichever member from their party is elected to the assembly, he and his party would fully cooperate with that representative in resolving the problems of the people of Kashmir. Maryam Nawaz also sent air-conditioned buses for the people of Kashmir, but they were stopped on the instructions of the Election Commission. Nevertheless, the message reached the people of Kashmir that the PML-N was in a position to do something to address their deprivation. This thinking could help the PML-N achieve further success in the next two phases as well. But the real decisions, after all, remain in the hands of those who possess the power and influence. In our country, writing and speaking the truth has become extremely difficult. There is immense pressure not only from powerful circles but also from violent and extremist mindsets. Their proxies can be found roaming freely in the streets. In normal states, something that would be considered ordinary or insignificant was used as a pretext to shut down the country’s largest media organisation, Geo, for two weeks. This alone gives an idea of the pressure facing the Jang newspaper and the national media. For this reason, the writer says he tries to avoid writing about national and domestic affairs and mostly focuses on international issues. Even there, however, he has to be careful not to write anything critical of China, Iran or certain other countries. Likewise, he says he cannot write anything supportive of India, Israel or certain other countries that might highlight a positive aspect or truth about them. This, he says, is the pressure he faces every moment. When it comes to Indian-administered Kashmir, we can freely write and speak about alleged government abuses without facing difficulty or objection. We can exaggerate as much as we want and add as much colour as we like. The violent militants there are portrayed as victims under all circumstances. But when it comes to our own Kashmir, we are expected to portray the movement for public rights as anti-state, Indian-sponsored and terrorist, regardless of how strongly its members insist that they are simply demanding rights for ordinary people. The organisation is not even named after any military or jihadist group. It is called the Jammu and Kashmir Joint Action Committee. It consists of local Kashmiri traders, transporters, workers, students and lawyers. These are ordinary citizens of the region. They demand rights for ordinary Kashmiris. They speak against rising inflation and call for reductions in the prices of wheat and flour. They oppose excessive privileges for the elite, misuse of public resources and corruption. They also demand an end to what they consider unjust taxes. Despite this, the organisation has not only been banned, but its workers have allegedly been arrested and subjected to violence in ways that are deeply disturbing. While witnessing all this, writers like us sometimes adopt deliberate ignorance and tell the members of the Awami Action Committee: “You make allegations against our sacred institutions. How could they possibly commit excesses against you?” We are told that these institutions are the reason this small part of Kashmir remains with us. We are also told that they have kept the Kashmir issue alive so that the entire region can eventually be recovered. Therefore, according to this argument, their praise and appreciation are justified. If, according to protesters, 30 or 35 people have so far been killed and around 300 injured during demonstrations, then we are also told to consider how many of our security personnel have

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *