makkah accord irans

Makkah Accord and Iran’s Positive Response

By Muhammad Imran, Staff Member, SAHSOL-LUMS and Asma Rahmat, Final Year Law Student, SLC, Superior University

Introduction: The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement was always likely to generate a degree of unease in Tehran – actually, this is not the case. Any emerging collective-security arrangement involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye was bound to attract scrutiny in Iran, particularly against the backdrop of longstanding strategic rivalries in the Persian Gulf, shifting regional alignments, and uncertainty regarding the eventual scope, institutional structure, and strategic trajectory of the agreement. Nevertheless, Iran’s official response has so far been notably measured, restrained, and constructive. This approach deserves particular recognition at a time when the Middle East is already experiencing profound geopolitical uncertainty and strategic volatility.

Iran’s Measured Diplomatic Response: Some degree of skepticism among Iranian politicians, commentators, and strategic analysts is neither surprising nor inherently problematic. What is considerably more significant, however, is the position adopted by the Iranian government itself. Rather than immediately portraying the agreement as an emerging threat or an instrument of strategic encirclement, Tehran has adopted a comparatively cautious and pragmatic interpretation.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei has characterized recent regional developments as indicative of a broader transformation in the way Middle Eastern states perceive and pursue their security interests. In particular, he has suggested that regional countries are increasingly recognizing that their long-term security cannot remain excessively dependent upon external powers, particularly the United States. This interpretation is strategically significant. It enables Tehran to acknowledge the emergence of new regional security arrangements without necessarily interpreting them through an exclusively confrontational lens. More importantly, it creates diplomatic space for Iran to engage with the evolving regional security architecture without prematurely positioning itself in opposition to the emerging arrangement.

Not an Anti-Iran Arrangement: Perhaps even more consequential is Tehran’s indication that it sees no compelling reason, at least at this stage, to regard the Makkah Agreement as being directed against Iran. By emphasizing the deep historical, cultural, civilizational, economic, and diplomatic ties connecting Iran with Pakistan, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has sought to place the agreement within the broader context of regional developments rather than reducing it to a zero-sum strategic competition.

This diplomatic framing is important. At a particularly sensitive juncture in Middle Eastern politics, the manner in which states interpret one another’s strategic initiatives can be almost as consequential as the initiatives themselves. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye have emphasized the defensive character of the agreement and have maintained that it is not directed against any particular state. Tehran’s apparent willingness to acknowledge that position reduces the possibility that the agreement will become the subject of an unnecessary cycle of suspicion, countermeasures, and strategic miscalculation.

This, however, does not mean that Iran will disregard the agreement or refrain from carefully assessing its potential implications. Tehran will undoubtedly examine its institutional structure, military dimensions, strategic objectives, operational capabilities, and possible future trajectory. Every major regional actor is likely to do the same. Diplomatic reassurance and strategic calculation are not mutually exclusive: states can remain vigilant regarding developments affecting their national security while simultaneously choosing diplomacy over confrontation.

A Critical Formative Stage: The Makkah Agreement remains at a relatively early stage of development. Its eventual character, institutional capacity, strategic purpose, and regional consequences will depend substantially upon how its participating states define, institutionalize, and implement it over time. At this formative stage, responsible rhetoric and prudent diplomacy are therefore particularly important.

Prematurely treating the agreement as an instrument of confrontation could create precisely the tensions that its participating states claim they seek to avoid. Conversely, maintaining strategic ambiguity alongside diplomatic reassurance may provide sufficient space for the arrangement to evolve without immediately becoming embedded within the region’s existing patterns of rivalry.

Iran could have responded with immediate hostility, framing the agreement as a direct threat to its national security and thereby contributing to another cycle of regional polarization. Instead, at least for the present, Tehran has chosen a different course. By maintaining a measured tone, recognizing the possibility of legitimate regional security concerns, and leaving open the possibility of dialogue, Iran has preserved diplomatic space for engagement rather than confrontation. This approach should be welcomed by all concerned.

Towards a Regionally Owned Security Architecture: The emergence of new regional security arrangements does not necessarily have to produce new geopolitical divisions. If Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Iran can resist the temptation to interpret every strategic development exclusively through the lens of rivalry, the present moment could provide an opportunity to develop a more genuinely regionally owned security architecture.

Such an architecture should not rest exclusively upon military deterrence. It should also incorporate dialogue, confidence-building measures, mutual reassurance, economic interdependence, diplomatic engagement, and respect for the legitimate security concerns of neighboring states. The long-term objective should be to reduce, rather than institutionalize, the structural mistrust that has historically characterized relations among major regional actors.

Pakistan’s Emerging Strategic Role: The broader geopolitical context is equally significant. Pakistan appears to be assuming a more consequential role in regional affairs, supported by what its proponents regard as the dynamic and assertive leadership of Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir. At the same time, India is confronting significant diplomatic challenges in its regional and international engagement.

This changing strategic environment provides Pakistan with an opportunity to pursue a more confident, balanced, and strategically autonomous foreign policy. Pakistan’s greatest diplomatic advantage may lie not in becoming another participant in a rigid bloc system, but in positioning itself as a bridge between competing regional interests.

Its relationships with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Iran, China, and other regional actors provide Pakistan with diplomatic space that could potentially be used to promote communication and confidence-building among states whose strategic interests do not always converge.

The Changing Role of the United States: Another important dimension of the Makkah Agreement concerns the evolving role of the United States in the Middle East. The agreement may, at least from the perspective of some regional observers, be understood as part of a broader movement towards greater regional strategic autonomy.

The perception that Middle Eastern states can no longer rely exclusively upon the United States as the ultimate guarantor of their security has become increasingly prominent. Repeated regional conflicts, shifting alliances, and changes in the distribution of military and diplomatic influence have encouraged several states to diversify their strategic partnerships and reconsider traditional assumptions regarding external security guarantees.

Iran’s prolonged confrontation with the United States has also contributed to the perception that Washington’s ability to exercise uncontested strategic influence in the Middle East is no longer what it once was. This does not necessarily mean that American influence has disappeared; rather, it suggests that regional actors are increasingly seeking greater autonomy in determining their own strategic and security priorities.

The significance of the Makkah Agreement should therefore also be assessed against this broader transformation in the regional order.

Implications for Israel: The implications for Israel are particularly noteworthy. The Makkah Agreement is not expressly directed against Israel, nor should it automatically be characterized as an anti-Israel alliance. Nevertheless, its emergence must be understood within the wider context of rapidly changing strategic alignments in the Middle East.

Israeli concerns regarding the possible emergence of a broader Sunni strategic bloc, particularly in light of Türkiye’s growing regional influence, illustrate the extent to which traditional assumptions about the regional balance of power are being reconsidered. Whether such concerns are entirely justified is a separate question. What is undeniable, however, is that the emergence of new security partnerships is being interpreted through the prism of an increasingly fluid and competitive regional environment.

The central issue, therefore, is not whether the Makkah Agreement is formally directed against Israel or Iran. Such a characterization would oversimplify its strategic purpose and could undermine its potential diplomatic utility. The more consequential question is whether the Agreement contributes to the emergence of a regional security architecture in which Middle Eastern and neighbouring states possess greater capacity to determine their own security priorities.

If continuing regional conflicts and military interventions generate persistent insecurity among neighbouring states, the likely consequence may be the gradual consolidation of alternative security arrangements. In that sense, the strategic consequences of Israel’s regional policies may ultimately extend beyond its immediate confrontation with Iran and influence the broader architecture of Middle Eastern security.

The Real Test of the Makkah Agreement: The real test of the Makkah Agreement, therefore, will not simply be whom it excludes, but what kind of regional order it ultimately helps to create.

If it develops merely into another military alignment, it risks reinforcing the very cycle of polarization that has contributed to instability in the region for decades. If, however, it evolves into a platform for dialogue, deterrence, confidence-building, strategic coordination, and greater regional autonomy, it could represent an important step towards a more balanced and self-reliant security order.

For Pakistan, this presents both a strategic opportunity and a diplomatic responsibility. Its growing relevance should be employed to promote regional stability rather than to deepen existing geopolitical divisions. Pakistan can potentially play a constructive role by maintaining close strategic relations with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye while preserving meaningful diplomatic engagement with Iran and other regional actors.

Conclusion – From Military Alignment to Regional Stability: Ultimately, the durability, credibility, and strategic value of any regional security arrangement will depend not merely upon the strength of its military commitments, but upon its capacity to coexist constructively with neighbouring states without hardening existing divisions or creating permanent blocs of confrontation.

In this context, Iran’s measured response to the Makkah Agreement presents a modest yet potentially significant diplomatic opening. Rather than allowing the Agreement to become another instrument of regional polarization, its participating states could use it as a foundation for a broader conversation on collective security, strategic stability, confidence-building, and the gradual development of a more autonomous regional security architecture.

The opportunity before Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Iran is therefore larger than the Agreement itself. They have the possibility of demonstrating that regional security need not be synonymous with regional confrontation. If diplomacy can accompany deterrence, and strategic autonomy can coexist with mutual reassurance, the Makkah Agreement could evolve beyond a conventional defence arrangement into an important component of a new regional order—one in which security is increasingly defined and safeguarded by the states of the region themselves rather than determined predominantly by external powers.

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A biodiversity survey conducted in November 2014 found 155 animal species sheltering within it: 23 species of mammals, 104 species of birds spanning 16 orders and 42 families, 22 species of reptiles, and 6 species of amphibians. The same survey catalogued more than 661 plant species across 28 families, with six distinct dominant vegetation communities knitting the forest floor together. This is not a park. This is a living, breathing ecological archive sitting in the geographic center of a national capital — a rarity almost nowhere else replicated in the world. It was Roedad Khan — the legendary civil servant and statesman — who understood the fragility of this inheritance early enough to act. In 1989 he founded the Margalla Hills Society, and for decades that institution has done more than most government departments to keep the wider Margalla ecosystem intact. But Shakarparian, sitting apart within it, has not been so fortunate. It has instead become a recurring casualty of the very authority meant to protect it — the Capital Development Authority itself. Piece by piece, lease by lease, CDA has allowed Shakarparian’s protective forest cover to be carved away. Look at what now occupies ground that was meant to remain forest: the Parade Ground, the Pak-China Friendship Centre, the Islamabad Club, the Gun and Country Club, Lok Virsa, an open-air theatre, and a string of upscale hotels and restaurants. Each addition was, in its own file, justified. Together, they are a forest reduced to a backdrop for institutions that no longer need it and increasingly cannot coexist with it. This has happened in direct violation of Regulation 4(3)(b) of the ICT Zoning Regulations of Islamabad, which exists for the explicit purpose of preventing exactly this kind of land-use change, allegedly under sustained political pressure. Satellite imagery from Landsat and Sentinel spanning the last twenty years tells the story without need for further commentary: the southwest region of Shakarparian shows a stark, measurable retreat of forest cover. The judiciary, at least once, was willing to look squarely at this. On January 11, 2022, the Islamabad High Court delivered its verdict in Prof. Zahid Baig Mirza versus Capital Development Authority, and the ruling was unambiguous: the shifting of the Parade Ground into Zone 3, the widening of roads through the forest, and the construction of the China Friendship Centre inside Shakarparian all violated the ICT Zoning Regulations. It was, on paper, a vindication of everything Doxiadis intended and everything CDA had ignored. A court verdict that is not enforced, however, is simply another document gathering dust the way the original master plan itself so nearly did. And here I have to say something that will not make me popular in certain circles of this city: the NGO sector stationed in Islamabad has failed Shakarparian as thoroughly as CDA has bulldozed it. The single biggest failure of these organizations is that they will not raise their own voice — they wait, always, for the government to raise it first, as though advocacy requires official permission. That is not activism. That is choreography. Too many of these NGOs are, in practice, family businesses wearing the language of conservation: leadership passed quietly within the same households for years, boards that never rotate, and a business model built not around planting a single tree in Shakarparian but around producing glossy reports, attending conferences, and mastering the art of recycling the same handful of buzzwords — resilience, sustainability, nature-based solutions — into slightly different sentences for slightly different donors. They are experts in rephrasing a crisis. They are not experts in stopping one. When the chainsaws reached the H-8 green belt, it was a lone campaigner and a worried student who spoke up first, not the well-funded organisations whose entire mandate is supposed to be exactly this. This failure is made worse by the fact that the government itself is not short of obligations it has already signed onto. Pakistan is a party to the Convention on Biological Diversity, which binds it to conserve representative ecosystems and halt biodiversity loss

  • The AJK Unrest

    Distrust in Azad Jammu and Kashmir is linked to a small but organized group that allegedly used social media manipulation, propaganda, and genuine public grievances to create an impression of widespread support disconnected from reality, deepening divisions within society and straining relations between the state and its citizens. The Rawalakot protests are said to have involved only a small fraction of AJK’s population of about four million, with fewer than 40,000 participants at peak attendance and likely around 10,000–15,000 overall, while more than five times that number reportedly traveled from Rawalakot to Rawalpindi on June 6 and 7. Many families moved weddings to Rawalpindi and Islamabad, sick people and schoolchildren left the town, and hundreds of families delayed school and college admissions until August because of the disruption. Most residents remained away from the protests to protect their families, forming a “silent majority,” while around 90 percent of people in other districts are said not to support the protesters’ agenda. Large political rallies in Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Dhirkot, and Bhimbar are taken as evidence of stronger support for the constitutional political process than for the Rawalakot sit-in. Around 10,000–15,000 protesters are held responsible for disrupting daily life, damaging the economy, creating fear and uncertainty, and causing disorder over an issue that could have been resolved through legislation, dialogue, and democratic institutions rather than confrontation and violence. Aided by a few journalists acting as propagandists, the movement is accused of using manipulated images, fake news, and emotional appeals to create the impression that the whole of Azad Kashmir supports it, even though the participants are said to constitute less than 10 percent of Rawalakot’s own population.   The government has addressed many demands by reducing electricity and flour prices, abolishing refugee ministries, reducing the number of ministers, halving the property transfer tax, completing the Rathwa Hariyam Bridge, withdrawing FIRs and legal cases, compensating the families of those killed and 56 injured people, providing a government job to Azhar’s brother, approving a Rs. 5.5 billion PC-1 for MRI facilities, and approving a Rs. 9 billion PC-1 to improve the power transmission system.   The application to make Azad Kashmir Bank a scheduled bank has been submitted to the State Bank of Pakistan, a move that will strengthen the financial sector and provide greater access to banking services for the people. The health card has been restored, a vital social safety net program that provides access to medical care for those who cannot afford it, and its restoration was a major victory for the people. Two new boards of education have been established, decentralizing the education system and allowing for more focused and effective administration of schools. The Mansehra, Muzaffarabad and Mangla expressways are included in the CPEC project, a game-changing development that will bring massive investment, improve connectivity, and create economic opportunities for the region. The establishment of Mirpur Airport was announced by the Prime Minister of Pakistan on live television, a major milestone that will open up the region to the world and facilitate trade and tourism, and work on the feasibility has started, with the project now moving from the planning stage to reality. The quota system has ended, a long-standing demand that was seen as discriminatory and unjust, and its abolition was a major step towards equality and fairness. Additional departments were abolished and merged with existing departments, a move that reduced bureaucracy and made the government more efficient. The e-tendering of electricity meters was approved, a reform that will ensure transparency and fairness in the procurement process. The demand for 30 KVA for schools and colleges was approved, and the notification has been issued, ensuring that educational institutions will have access to a reliable power supply. Now, among the remaining demands, there is a demand for 4 tunnels and bridges, infrastructure projects that are undeniably needed and would greatly benefit the people, but in reality one single tunnel is estimated to be completed in 10 billion rupees, and the total development budget of Azad Kashmir is less than 40 billion rupees, meaning that these projects cannot be built overnight. The government or no one has any magical capabilities, and no airport, bridges, and tunnels can be built overnight, as they require years of planning, feasibility studies, environmental assessments, and massive financial outlays that must be spread over many years.   In fact, after approving so many demands, after demonstrating such a clear willingness to address the grievances of the people, to insist on only one remaining demand and to lay siege to the entire region and paralyze the lives of millions, one must ask a crucial question: is it the stubborn government or the action committee that is being unreasonable?   The so-called peaceful revolutionary sit-in of the banned Joint Action Committee has been completely exposed for what it really is, and the mask of peaceful protest has slipped to reveal the ugly face of violent insurgency. Their so-called rational teams, which were presented as peaceful negotiators and organizers, are in fact positioned on rooftops with state-of-the-art SMG guns and ultra-expensive military binoculars, and their purpose is not to maintain order but to monitor the security forces on the ground, tracking their movements and planning for a confrontation. This is not a political sit-in, which is a legitimate form of protest in a democracy, but a planned military confrontation against the security forces of the state, a deliberate strategy to provoke a reaction and to create martyrs. Recently a banned Action Committee’s leader made a revealing statement, admitting to the supply of modern US-made M4 rifles to troublemakers, a serious accusation that confirms the armed nature of the group and its intent to use violence against the state. The banned JAAC is using fake and AI generated videos and posts to get the support of the people, manufacturing evidence and creating a false reality to manipulate public opinion, and these fabricated materials are spread widely on social media to create a sense of crisis and to incite hatred.

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