Pakistan: A Laboratory That Refuses to Learn

By Ali Hiader

Pakistan has gradually become a testing ground for government projects. Governments experiment with massive infrastructure projects costing billions, and when the results fall short of expectations, another project of the exact same nature is launched. The tragedy is that while other countries may well be learning from Pakistan’s experiments, we have completely failed to learn from them.

Punjab’s public transport system serves as a clear example of this. Currently, there are three major metro bus projects operating in Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan, while two additional projects are under construction in Faisalabad and Gujranwala. The total length of the existing metro bus routes is approximately 70 kilometers, served by around 167 buses. In Lahore, a city with a population of nearly 20 million, only 66 buses operate along a 27-kilometer route; this indicates that a substantial amount of public funds have been allocated to cover only a limited area.

It is also essential to consider the cost of these projects. Approximately 30 billion rupees were spent on the Lahore Metro Bus project, around 38 billion rupees on the Rawalpindi Metro Bus, and about 29 billion rupees on the Multan Metro Bus; thus, the total cost … is approximately 97 billion rupees. However, the matter does not end there. Subsequently, Lahore was gifted another major transport project—the Orange Line Metro Train—with a total cost of approximately 300 billion rupees.

The issue is not that governments are making a mistake by investing in public transport; public transport is indispensable in expanding cities and can play a vital role in improving the mobility of ordinary citizens. The real question is whether a developing country like Pakistan can afford a transport system that requires the government to provide massive annual subsidies for its operation.

According to reported figures, Punjab’s three Metro Bus projects collectively require an annual subsidy of approximately Rs 21 billion, while the Orange Line Metro Train also requires annual government financial support. This means that, even years after the initial construction costs were paid, taxpayers continue to bear the expenses of these projects. Meanwhile, passengers still face issues such as overcrowding, long wait times, and limited service capacity.

The Punjab government’s new green electric bus project merits attention from a different reason. Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz’s administration has proposed a plan to deploy 5,000 electric buses across Punjab over five years at an estimated total cost of PKR 300 billion. While this cost is relatively lower than that of Lahore’s existing Metro Bus and Orange Line Train systems, the project offers the added advantage of not requiring heavy infrastructure—such as dedicated metro corridors or rail networks; existing roads and bus stops suffice, and operations are far more flexible than current public transport systems. A driver and a conductor are all that is needed to operate a bus.

Most importantly, electric buses can provide public transport services to a vast population with relatively low infrastructure costs. In principle, this model is particularly well-suited to a province where millions of citizens still lack access to reliable public transport.However, Punjab has previously experimented with conventional bus-based public transport; projects like the Speedo service and BUSCO were launched in Lahore and its surrounding areas with similar objectives. The BUSCO project, in particular, ultimately became a prime example of how a public welfare system can shut down when governments fail to plan for the long-term management of public assets. Today, these buses lie in a state of ruin, whereas they could have been properly sold, relocated, or repurposed.

This is precisely why the Green Bus project requires a different financial model. For developing countries like Pakistan, it is extremely difficult to sustain public amenities that rely on perpetual subsidies. Whenever the government faces a financial crisis or a shortage of funds, these buses will eventually end up as nothing more than wrecks. A transport system that cannot survive without billions of rupees in annual government aid is, at its core, a weak system.

To ensure that the project runs effectively, it is essential to operate it on a “no-profit, no-loss” basis so that it remains sustainable for years to come. Fares should be structured so that, following the initial government investment, the system can at least cover its own operating, repair, and maintenance costs, as well as the expense of future bus replacements. While it is acceptable for the government not to make a profit, it must avoid creating a system that requires billions of rupees in annual subsidies merely to remain operational.At the same time, the number of buses must be sufficient for public transport to truly serve as an alternative to private vehicles. Currently, passengers face severe overcrowding, long waits, and uncomfortable journeys.

If traveling by government bus means enduring extreme overcrowding, public transport cannot persuade people to leave their motorcycles and cars at home.Kasur serves as a prime example of this situation. The Kasur district, with a population of approximately 3.8 million, has received only 12 ‘Green Buses’ so far—buses that are smaller than those operating in Lahore. Yet, for a population of this size, the number of buses should have been far greater.

If the government genuinely wants people to prioritize public transport, it must increase the fleet size to a level where passengers can travel in comfort and dignity, rather than having to grapple with one another just to secure a spot on a bus.Punjab now has the opportunity to learn from its past. Instead of viewing every public transport project merely as an occasion for inauguration or a publicity stunt, Maryam Nawaz should focus on its long-term sustainability. The true measure of a project’s success is not how impressive it looks on the day of its inauguration, but rather how effective, affordable, and financially sustainable it remains even ten or twenty years down the line.Punjab certainly needs better public transport. However, the province requires systems that prioritize sustainability, accessibility, and public convenience over political symbols. The government should undertake fewer projects that remain perpetually dependent on taxpayers’ money and instead focus on projects that can stand on their own feet.