building longterm flood

Building Long-Term Flood Resilience

As Pakistan enters another monsoon season, the central question is no longer whether the country will experience floods, but whether we have learned enough from previous disasters to diminish their catastrophic impact. Memories of the devastating floods of 2022, which submerged one-third of the country, displaced more than 33 million people and caused economic losses exceeding US$30 billion, continue to haunt us. Four years later, Pakistan still remains on the frontline of the global climate crisis, with another challenging monsoon season unfolding in 2026.

Climate experts warn that escalating global temperatures are intensifying the hydrological cycle, resulting in heavier rainfall events, rising glacier melt and frequent weather extremes. Pakistan, despite contributing less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, consistently ranks among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Recent forecasts by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) show an enhanced likelihood of heavy rainfall, flash floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and urban flooding. Against this backdrop, an important question arises: Are the Pakistani Government and people aptly prepared for the potential floods in 2026?

Since the 2022 floods, the Pakistani Government has introduced several measures aimed at reinforcing disaster preparedness. The NDMA, Provincial Disaster Management Authorities and district administrations have boosted coordination before each monsoon season. Emergency response plans are updated regularly, while rescue agencies conduct preparedness exercises in vulnerable districts. This year, the government has demonstrated a clear commitment to strengthening the country’s flood preparedness. In early July, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting to review monsoon readiness, approving the formation of a national Emergency Response Committee and directing the establishment of an emergency fund for intense weather-related disasters. The Prime Minister also ordered federal and provincial institutions to deploy their full resources to facilitate the public throughout the monsoon season.

A cornerstone of Pakistan’s 2026 preparedness strategy is the transition from conventional early warnings to predictive disaster intelligence. This shift, coordinated through the National Emergencies Operation Centre, aims at significantly enhancing the ability to foresee risks and issue timely advisories. International cooperation has also played a key role in this technological advancement. Pakistan has deployed a localized version of China’s MAZU AI meteorological early warning platform, developed jointly since 2023. The cloud-based system allows forecasters to monitor risks associated with floods, droughts and other extreme weather events with greater accuracy than ever before. In addition, a smart flash flood early warning system developed by a Chinese-Pakistani research team has been deployed in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s Swat Valley and a district of Punjab.

However, these improvements regarding flood preparedness remain inconsistent and uneven across the country. Population surge, rapid and unregulated urbanization, deforestation, encroachment on floodplains and deficient drainage systems have further enhanced Pakistan’s exposure to flood hazards. Many flood protection structures need rehabilitation, while aging dams, canals and drainage systems continue to face maintenance issues. Urban drainage remains inadequate in several large cities, increasing the likelihood of severe urban flooding during intense rainfall.

Moreover, despite progress, Pakistan’s disaster management system still faces several structural fragilities. First, disaster management remains greatly focused on emergency response instead of long-term risk diminution. Second, coordination among federal, provincial and local governments often becomes inconsistent during emergencies. Third, many local governments lack the financial resources, trained personnel and equipment needed for efficient disaster readiness. Rural areas in all the provinces often struggle with inadequate emergency infrastructure. Finally, climate adaptation financing remains below the scale required to address the country’s surging climate risks. Despite international support, Pakistan’s climate adaptation needs continue to exceed available resources. Another major challenge is the uncertainty caused by India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in 2025, which has stopped the sharing of critical river flow data. This move has forced Pakistani authorities to rely on less credible sources, including social media, to make flood assessments.

The state of public awareness and preparedness, particularly at the community level, also remains weak. A 2025 scientific study “Assessing societal perceptions and adaptive responses to GLOF and related hazards in the upper Indus Basin, Pakistan”, found significant public awareness and training gaps, with 30.55% of respondents highlighting deficiencies in existing hazard management practices. Furthermore, 98.15% of participants acknowledged that climate change and global warming are major contributors to GLOF events, but this awareness has not translated into adequate preparedness. Another study of rural communities in southern Punjab found high attitudinal vulnerabilities linked to “poorly perceived flood risks and low preparedness measures”. The 2025 floods provided a stark reminder of these gaps. Despite advanced warning systems, over 842 lives were lost, 1.2 million people were displaced and more than 4 million were affected. Local communities often serve as the first responders, and their knowledge about disasters is vital, yet their input is frequently unheeded in formal disaster management.

In view of these gaps, Pakistan needs to move beyond reactive aid towards a strategy of real-time planning and community engagement. Disaster experts argue that Pakistan still spends more resources responding to disasters than preventing them. Long-term flood resilience requires investments in climate adaptation rather than emergency relief alone. In this regard, priority areas include restoring forests in upper watersheds; protecting wetlands that naturally store floodwater; expanding urban green spaces; modernizing drainage systems; strengthening dams, levees and embankments; enforcing zoning laws to prevent settlement in flood-prone areas; promoting climate-smart agriculture; expanding crop insurance and disaster insurance; and improving early warning systems at village level.

The expected floods of 2026 should be viewed as another warning that climate resilience is no longer optional but a national imperative. By coalescing scientific forecasting, efficient governance, informed citizens and long-term planning, Pakistan can minimize future losses and better protect both lives and livelihoods in an era of mounting climate uncertainty. The looming monsoon season of 2026 will be a critical test of whether the lessons of previous disasters have been learned and acted upon in time.

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It is a client relationship wearing the costume of a partnership, and increasingly, the costume does not fit. I do not say this as someone hostile to alliances. Alliances are the ordinary furniture of statecraft, and no serious analyst begrudges Washington its relationships. What I begrudge, what any honest observer of the last two decades of American foreign policy must eventually begrudge, is the peculiar one-directionality of this particular relationship, in which American strategic autonomy is perpetually available for negotiation, but Israeli strategic autonomy is not. Successive administrations, Democratic and Republican alike, have discovered that the fastest way to kill a sound policy is to let it wander anywhere near Jerusalem’s objections. The Biden administration played this game with a kind of practiced fluency, dressing subservience in the language of “shared values” and “unbreakable bonds.” That the current administration appears to be playing the identical game, merely with a different set of talking points, should trouble anyone who once believed that a change in party might also mean a change in posture. The deeper dishonesty, though, sits beneath the day-to-day theatre of negotiation. It is the elephant that everyone in the room has agreed, by unspoken consensus, not to see. Iran is treated as the singular proliferation emergency of the Middle East, the country whose enrichment levels must be monitored down to the percentage point, whose every centrifuge is a matter of international alarm, whose nuclear ambitions justify sanctions regimes, covert sabotage, and the standing threat of military strikes. And yet a few hundred kilometers away sits a state that has possessed nuclear weapons for more than half a century, has never signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, has never submitted to an inspection regime of any kind, and whose arsenal is discussed in Western capitals only in the passive voice, if it is discussed at all. Israel’s bomb is an open secret that everyone has agreed to keep. This is not a minor inconsistency. It is the load-bearing hypocrisy of the entire non-proliferation architecture in West Asia. You cannot credibly claim to be pursuing a weapons-of-mass-destruction-free Middle East while exempting, by unspoken convention, the one state in the region that actually has the weapons in question. Every argument marshalled against Iran’s nuclear programme, that a nuclear-armed state destabilizes its neighbors, that it invites arms races, that it holds regional security hostage to the judgment of a single government, applies with at least equal force to Israel, and applies to a country that has, unlike Iran, already used overwhelming force against multiple neighbors within living memory. The asymmetry is not a technical oversight. It is a choice, made and remade by every administration that has declined to place Israel’s arsenal on the table. What this reveals, I think, is that the “Iran obsession,” as it might fairly be called, was never really about proliferation at all. If it were, the conversation would begin with disarmament architecture applied evenhandedly across the region, inspections offered and demanded in both directions, and a serious reckoning with the double standard that has calcified into policy over fifty years. Instead, the Iran file functions as a proxy for a different question entirely, whose security calculus gets to define American Middle East policy. And on that question, the answer has been remarkably consistent regardless of who occupies the Oval Office. None of this is a case for indulging Tehran’s own record, which carries its own list of grievances worth prosecuting honestly, its human rights abuses, its regional proxies, its own history of destabilizing behavior. Clear-eyed criticism of Iran is entirely compatible with clear-eyed criticism of the double standard applied to Israel; the two are not in tension, and pretending otherwise is its own kind of evasion. But a foreign policy that claims the mantle of principle while practicing this degree of selective vision is not principled. It is theatre, and increasingly unconvincing theatre, performed for a domestic audience that is growing visibly tired of the script. The unpopularity of this arrangement is no longer a fringe sentiment. It shows up in polling, in generational splits within America’s own political coalitions, in the rising discomfort even among constituencies that have historically been the most reliable defenders of the relationship. People are noticing the pattern: that policies justified as serving American interests keep bending, at the last moment, toward a different set of interests altogether. They are asking, reasonably, who is actually driving the car. There is also a historical dimension to this that deserves more attention than it usually receives. The pattern of conditioning American policy on Israeli comfort did not begin with Iran, and it will not end there. It runs through decades of vetoed resolutions at the United Nations, through arms transfers that continued uninterrupted even amid documented humanitarian catastrophe, through the quiet understanding that certain questions simply are not to be raised in polite Washington company. Each individual instance can be explained away with its own set of justifications, security concerns, historical debts, domestic political realities. But taken together, across administrations

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