‘Super’ El Niño threatens $20bn Africa hit

Africa could suffer economic losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion if a powerful El Niño weather pattern develops, the African Development Bank’s climate chief has warned.

The expected weather event could bring severe droughts, floods and storms to different parts of Africa. It could put additional pressure on food supplies, water resources and government finances.

Anthony Nyong, the African Development Bank’s director for climate change and green growth, said countries facing the worst effects could see their gross domestic product decline by around 1% to 2%.

He said the potential losses could amount to between $10 billion and $20 billion across the continent.

The warning comes as forecasters monitor rising temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Current conditions have raised concerns that the next El Niño could become unusually strong.

El Niño is a climate pattern that can significantly change weather conditions in different parts of the world. In Africa, it can contribute to drought, heavy rainfall, flooding and storms.

A severe event could deepen existing climate problems across the continent.

The Sahel region has already faced serious drought conditions in recent years. Other parts of Africa are still recovering from major storms and floods.

Nyong warned that the economic consequences may continue long after the weather event ends.

He pointed to Mozambique’s experience after Cyclone Idai in 2019. The country needed years to recover from the damage caused by the storm.

Agriculture could be among the sectors hit hardest by the expected climate shock.

The previous El Niño, which occurred during 2023 and 2024, brought severe drought to Southern Africa. East Africa experienced heavy rainfall and flooding.

The extreme weather contributed to crop failures and higher food prices. Coastal areas also recorded unusually high sea levels.

African farmers are already facing substantial losses. The African Development Bank estimates that agricultural losses could reach around $327 million this year.

Fishing communities could also suffer. Rising sea temperatures and storms are expected to affect fisheries productivity.

The bank estimates that fisheries productivity could decline by between 1% and 4%.

Nyong warned that food shortages could become a major concern if the expected weather pattern intensifies.

Maize is particularly important because it is a major staple food in many African countries. A significant decline in production could push prices higher and increase pressure on vulnerable households.

The expected disaster could also put further pressure on national budgets.

Many African governments already have limited resources to respond to climate emergencies. Severe weather could force them to spend more on relief, reconstruction and infrastructure repairs.

This could mean less money for health, education and development projects.

Nyong described the situation as a “climate finance trap”. Countries may have to divert funds from essential services to deal with climate-related emergencies.

The African Development Bank is preparing to assess the possible effects of El Niño on its investments.

The bank plans to hold a major seminar in September. Senior officials will examine the potential risks to existing and planned projects.

The institution is also prepared to restructure some projects if necessary. It will work with affected countries to seek additional international climate financing.

Possible sources include the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund and Climate Investment Funds.

New loss-and-damage financing mechanisms could also provide support to countries suffering serious climate impacts.

The expected strength of El Niño could increase Africa’s climate financing needs significantly.

Nyong estimated that the continent could require up to $100 billion this year to strengthen climate resilience and adaptation.

He said the need for climate adaptation funding was already extremely high. The possible El Niño event could add billions of dollars to that requirement.

The financing gap remains a major challenge for developing countries.

Without sufficient funding, vulnerable countries may struggle to prepare for droughts, floods and storms before they occur.

The humanitarian consequences could be severe if drought and food shortages intensify.

Nyong warned that large numbers of people could be forced to leave their homes in search of food, water and livelihoods.

Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria were among the countries identified as potentially vulnerable to severe impacts.

Agricultural losses could leave many communities without reliable sources of income.

Shortages of water and grazing land could also increase competition between communities.

Such pressures could worsen instability in regions already affected by conflict, poverty and displacement.

The African Development Bank has therefore called for greater investment in preparedness and climate resilience.

Nyong stressed that governments should act before disasters strike rather than wait until the damage has already occurred.