Sindh’s Education Revolution: Transforming C…

The intellectual discourse initiated by Sufi philosophers was inclusive of all religions and negated mullahism. Baba Farid is said to have been persecuted by Pakpattan’s qazi and the ruler of the city for listening to music and dancing in the mosque. Guru Nanak condemned the ritualism of mullahs and the pundits—Our distorted intellectual discourse, Dawn, September 9, 2011  Our discussion of Waris Shah ended with Erich Fromm’s distinction between having and being. Heer’s family sought to have honour, status, alliances and authority over a daughter; Heer and Ranjha sought a relationship grounded in recognition rather than possession. Their tragedy arose because a possessive social order could not tolerate human beings who refused to behave as property. To take that argument further, we must now travel backwards nearly five centuries before Waris Shah, to the beginnings of the surviving Punjabi poetic tradition and to Baba Farid (Hazrat Fariduddin Ganjshaka). Najm Hosain Syed places Farid at the opening of that tradition. What distinguishes his dohras, Najm writes, is an “austerity of tone”. Their setting is not an imaginary spiritual landscape but the “daily experience of common man”: fields, bread, dust, ageing bodies, hunger, labour and death. That austerity is precisely why Farid speaks so forcefully to an age obsessed with accumulation. Fromm, writing in To Have or To Be?, contrasted two orientations towards existence. The having mode seeks security through possession, accumulation and control; the being mode locates fulfilment in living, loving, sharing and becoming. Farid inhabited an entirely different intellectual and spiritual universe, and it would be anachronistic to turn him into a medieval Fromm. The convergence lies elsewhere. Both question the assumption that what we possess tells us what we are. Farid begins with the most democratic substance imaginable: dust. Dust Shahmukhi Roman Punjabi Literary English translation فریدہ خاکُ ن نندیئ خاکو جیڈُ ن کوئِ جیودیاں پیراں تلے مویاں اپرِ ہوئِ Farida khaak na nindiye, khaako jed na koi Jeevandeyan pairan talle, moyan upar hoi Farid, do not despise the dust; nothing stands above it. In life it lies beneath our feet; in death it lies above us.   The surviving Shahmukhi text preserves the couplet in this form. Few lines dismantle hierarchy more economically. The earth beneath the rich man’s shoe and the poor labourer’s bare foot is the same earth that eventually covers both. Rank, office, lineage, property and beauty exist for a moment between two encounters with dust. Farid is not preaching passivity before injustice. His image destroys the metaphysical arrogance on which inequality depends. Human beings may create distinctions of caste, wealth and status, but mortality refuses to recognise them. The person who imagines himself elevated above another discovers that both occupy the same final ground. This is Farid’s first challenge to the mode of having. We spend our lives converting temporary control into imagined permanence: my land, my wealth, my title, my family name, my influence. Dust reveals the grammatical error. We possess these things temporarily; they do not belong to the essential self. Farid’s poetry becomes even more striking when it turns from mortality to material inequality. Flour for Some, Not Even Salt for Others Shahmukhi Roman Punjabi Literary English translation فریدہ اکناّ آٹا اگلا اکناّ ناہی لونُ اگے گئے سننجاپسنِ چوٹاں کھا سی کؤنُ Farida ikna aata agla, ikna nahi loon Agge gaye sanjhaapsan, chotan khaasi kaun Farid, some have flour in abundance; others do not even have salt. Beyond this life it will become known who must answer for the blows. The text occurs among the saloks attributed to Farid. This is not abstract mysticism. It is an observation about distribution. One household possesses abundance; another lacks even the simplest accompaniment to bread. Farid does not construct an economic theory from the disparity, but neither does he treat it as morally neutral. The second line introduces accountability. Unequal possession cannot be separated from the question of how human beings acquired, used and withheld what passed through their hands. This is an important corrective to a frequent misuse of spirituality. Poverty should never be romanticised simply because a saint practiced austerity. There is a profound difference between voluntary simplicity and involuntary deprivation. Farid could choose restraint as spiritual discipline; the person without salt may have no choice at all. His famous imagery of coarse bread makes the distinction clearer: فریدہ روٹی میری کاٹھ کی، لاونُ میری بھکھ His bread is hard and hunger itself becomes its relish. In the following couplet, he advises eating simple food and drinking cool water without tormenting oneself by staring enviously at another person’s richer meal. The ethical target is excess desire, not nourishment. A society in which some cannot meet basic needs while others define themselves through conspicuous consumption cannot use Farid to sanctify deprivation. His poetry asks the possessor to examine himself before asking the deprived to accept their condition. Here the relationship with Fromm becomes especially productive. The having mode is not merely ownership of useful things. Human life requires food, shelter, tools and security. The pathology begins when possession becomes identity—when having more means believing oneself to be more. Farid’s answer is sabar: steadfastness, restraint, patience and sufficiency. His surviving corpus repeatedly returns to simplicity, humility and control of appetite. In contemporary political economy, however, restraint cannot be demanded only from those who possess least. An ethic worthy of Farid must speak first to those with the greatest capacity to accumulate, consume and command. His social imagination reaches its deepest point when personal suffering becomes recognition of universal suffering. The Fire in Every House Shahmukhi Roman Punjabi Literary English translation فریدہ میں جانیا دکھ مجھ کوُ دکھ سبائے جگِ اُچے چڑھِ کے دیکھیا تاں گھرِ گھرِ ایہا اگِ Farida main jaania dukh mujh ko, dukh sabhaai jag Uchche charh ke dekhia, taan ghar ghar eha ag Farid, I thought suffering belonged to me alone; I climbed higher and saw the same fire burning in every home. The couplet is preserved in the Farid saloks, and one modern scholarly discussion sees precisely this capacity to absorb the suffering of

Every political leader is eventually defined not by promises but by performance under pressure. Pakistan has faced repeated political, economic and administrative challenges over the decades, and each crisis has demanded leadership with experience, patience and the ability to find solutions. In my view, Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif has established himself as a leader who understands governance, negotiation and crisis management. His journey from grassroots politics to becoming Chief Minister of Punjab and later Prime Minister of Pakistan has given him decades of experience in dealing with the practical realities of administration and public service. His reputation as a hands-on administrator comes from his approach to governance. During his tenure as Chief Minister of Punjab, he focused on reforms in education, healthcare, infrastructure and public service delivery. His fast-paced working style earned him the title “Shehbaz Speed”, reflecting his emphasis on implementation and results. I first met Shehbaz Sharif in 2005 at his flat in Avenfield House, London. Over the past twenty-one years, I have had the opportunity to observe his political journey closely. While journalism requires independence and critical analysis, personal observation also provides a unique perspective. Throughout this period, his commitment to Pakistan and his passion for public service have remained evident. During his years as Chief Minister of Punjab, I witnessed his determination to create opportunities for young Pakistanis, particularly through education reforms. Initiatives such as the Punjab Education Endowment Fund, Danish Schools, merit-based scholarships, laptop schemes for students and stipends for high achievers aimed to expand access to quality education. The policy of sending high-performing students abroad, including to the United Kingdom and other European countries, was designed to broaden their vision and expose them to international standards. These initiatives reflected a belief that education is the foundation for long-term national development. His reforms in healthcare and infrastructure also became a significant part of his governance record. Supporters believe that his focus on improving public services in Punjab provided a model of administrative delivery that he later brought to the national level. As Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif has faced one of the most challenging periods in Pakistan’s recent history. His supporters credit his government with helping stabilise the economy, restoring international engagement and steering Pakistan away from the risk of a deeper financial crisis. Although major economic challenges remain, they argue that difficult decisions have helped create a more stable foundation. One of the notable features of the current political landscape has been cooperation between state institutions. Supporters view the working relationship between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir as an example of institutional coordination aimed at achieving national stability and economic progress. Pakistan has also sought a more active role on the international stage. Supporters point to its diplomatic engagement, including efforts to promote dialogue during periods of international tension, as evidence that Pakistan continues to play an important role in regional and global affairs. In my view, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to steer Pakistan through difficult circumstances. Based on my observations over more than two decades, I believe he has faced major challenges before and has the experience and determination to overcome them again. His strength lies in his understanding of governance, his ability to negotiate with different stakeholders and his focus on delivery. Whether dealing with political partners, institutions or international partners, his supporters believe his experience gives him an advantage in managing complex situations. However, Pakistan’s journey towards prosperity requires continued reforms. Economic pressures, inflation, unemployment and governance challenges remain serious concerns. The next phase must focus on ensuring that national progress translates into improvements in the daily lives of ordinary citizens. In my opinion, Pakistan also needs stronger administrative decentralisation. Whether through new provinces or more empowered administrative units, decision-making should be brought closer to the people. More effective local governance can improve accountability, strengthen public services and accelerate development across the country. Pakistan now needs consistency, stability and a collective commitment from all stakeholders. Political differences are part of democracy, but national progress requires institutions to work together and focus on the common goal of prosperity. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has built his political career around crisis management and public administration. His greatest challenge now is to convert stability into sustainable growth and lasting development. History will ultimately judge every leader by the impact they leave behind. For Shehbaz Sharif, the opportunity remains to transform difficult times into a period of economic recovery, institutional strength and a stronger Pakistan for future generations.

By Sharjeel Zafar “Nuclear security is first and foremost a national responsibility.” This principle is not merely a diplomatic commitment – it is the minimum requirement for any state operating nuclear facilities. Against this fundamental principle, the reported data breach involving India’s largest nuclear power station, the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project (KKNPP), which came to public attention on 15 July 2026, represents a serious setback to confidence in India’s nuclear security architecture and highlights vulnerabilities within one of its most critical strategic facilities. The exposure of sensitive engineering documents from one of India’s flagship nuclear facilities is not just a cybersecurity failure; it is a warning sign of deeper vulnerabilities within a nuclear establishment that seeks to expand rapidly while struggling to secure the infrastructure it already operates. According to cybersecurity researchers, thousands of engineering files related to Kudankulam Units 3 and 4 were reportedly exposed following a ransomware attack on Reliance Infrastructure, a contractor associated with the project. The leaked material allegedly included drawings of ventilation and cooling systems, layouts of auxiliary control rooms, inspection records with site photographs, supplier information, and insurance documentation. Indian authorities have maintained that no reactor-core designs or operational control systems were compromised. Yet modern cyber operations seldom begin by targeting the most protected assets. Instead, adversaries assemble seemingly routine engineering documents, contractor records, and infrastructure layouts to build an intelligence picture that can support future cyber intrusions, supply-chain compromises, or physical sabotage. In this context, the significance of the breach lies not merely in what was leaked, but in what such information can enable. The incident is particularly concerning because it follows an earlier cybersecurity breach at the same facility. In 2019, malware attributed by cybersecurity researchers to the Lazarus Group infiltrated an administrative network associated with Kudankulam. Although the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) maintained that operational systems remained isolated, the episode demonstrated that India’s nuclear infrastructure had already become a target for sophisticated cyber actors. The recurrence of security incidents involving the same strategic installation suggests that vulnerabilities within India’s broader nuclear ecosystem, including contractors, suppliers, and administrative networks, remain insufficiently addressed. Such repeated breaches raise questions about the effectiveness of existing cybersecurity protocols and the resilience of critical nuclear infrastructure against evolving cyber threats. More troubling, however, is that Kudankulam represents only one aspect of a much larger problem. Over the past four decades, India has witnessed repeated incidents involving the theft, illegal possession, and trafficking of radioactive materials. Police have intercepted attempts to sell uranium and other radioactive substances in Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, and Dehradun involving stolen radioactive material. These repeated incidents raise serious questions about the effectiveness of India’s nuclear security mechanisms and its ability to maintain strict control over hazardous materials. These incidents expose a dangerous gap between India’s claims of maintaining a robust nuclear security architecture and the reality demonstrated by repeated security breaches. The timing of these concerns is particularly alarming. India is simultaneously seeking to dramatically expand its nuclear energy sector and introduce greater private-sector participation. Expansion without institutional strengthening creates a dangerous contradiction: the country is increasing the size and complexity of its nuclear ecosystem before fully resolving vulnerabilities already visible within the existing system. Private participation may bring investment, technological expertise, and efficiency, but it also introduces additional layers of complexity into nuclear security governance. Unlike a purely state-controlled system, a larger private-sector ecosystem involves multiple contractors, subcontractors, software providers, equipment suppliers, and service companies that may require access to sensitive information, digital networks, or operational support functions. Each additional entity connected to nuclear infrastructure expands the potential attack surface and creates new points at which cybersecurity failures, insider threats, inadequate security practices, or supply-chain compromises can occur. Differences in security standards, compliance capabilities, and oversight mechanisms among private entities may further complicate efforts to maintain uniform protection across the nuclear sector. Without strict regulatory control, mandatory cybersecurity standards, and continuous monitoring of third-party participants, privatization could unintentionally widen the pathways through which hostile actors attempt to access sensitive nuclear information or critical infrastructure. The implications extend far beyond India’s domestic energy programme. India’s expanding nuclear industry increasingly relies on international technology, foreign vendors, global supply chains, and cross-border investment. Consequently, vulnerabilities within one national nuclear programme can have wider strategic repercussions. A successful cyber operation or compromise of sensitive engineering information could undermine confidence in India’s nuclear security practices, raise concerns among international partners, and expose weaknesses in critical infrastructure protection within an increasingly interconnected nuclear industry. As civilian nuclear programmes worldwide become more digital and commercially integrated, cybersecurity failures in one country inevitably become matters of broader international concern. The Kudankulam breach should therefore serve as a strategic wake-up call, not another incident to be contained through official statements. A nuclear power’s credibility is not determined by the number of reactors it operates or the ambitions it announces, it is determined by its ability to prevent unauthorized access, protect sensitive information, secure radioactive materials, and maintain public confidence in its institutions. The question is whether the international community would still stay silent over a State’s perpetual weak demonstrated performance in nuclear security and remain vulnerable to risk of nuclear terrorism, cyber terrorism, illicit proliferation, and black market or transnational ecological disorder? India’s nuclear programme stands at a critical crossroads. Rapid expansion combined with unresolved security weaknesses creates a dangerous environment where a single successful cyber operation, insider compromise, or supply-chain failure could produce consequences far beyond financial losses or reputational damage. In the nuclear domain, prevention is not optional, and security lapses cannot be treated as routine administrative failures. The most serious threat facing India’s nuclear ambitions may not come from external adversaries seeking to undermine its programme, it may come from vulnerabilities that remain unaddressed within the programme itself. A nation aspiring to become a major nuclear power cannot afford a security culture built around reassurance after failure. It must build one based on prevention before disaster. The Kudankulam leak is not merely

For eighteen years, I have made a quiet, sometimes lonely case: that technology, not more paperwork and more offices, is the only honest path to good governance in Pakistan. I did not arrive at this conviction from a textbook. I arrived at it from a desk inside the Planning Commission, watching a system that was designed — on paper — to deliver development, and instead delivered delay, opacity, and grievance. Anyone who has sat through the sanctioning of a Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) project knows the ritual. The feasibility study is glowing. The PC-1 is approved with confident projections. Committees nod. Funds are released. And then the project disappears into the machinery of provincial implementation, where oversight thins out and accountability evaporates. What was promised on paper and what is delivered on the ground are, more often than not, two entirely different stories. I watched this happen again and again, and each time the gap between sanction and delivery was not explained by a shortage of money or expertise. It was explained by bureaucracy — a system built not to serve citizens but to preserve itself. This is not an abstract observation. It is the root of a very real and very dangerous problem. A significant part of the unrest we see in Balochistan, in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is not simply about resources or geography. It is about the absence of transparency and the absence of governance that people can see, question, and trust. When a citizen cannot find out where a development fund went, when a project sanctioned in Islamabad never materializes as promised in a district headquarters, when the only visible authority is a bureaucrat with a stamp and a discretionary signature, resentment grows. People do not rebel against distance from the capital. They rebel against being governed by a system that treats them as subjects to be managed rather than citizens to be served. And here is the tragedy that too few are willing to name plainly: the bureaucratic architecture we still operate under was never designed to serve the governed. It was designed by the British Raj to control a colonized population — to extract revenue, maintain order, and ensure that authority always flowed downward from a distant center, never upward from the people. Files, layers of clearance, and the personal discretion of an officer were features of a colonial control system, not instruments of democratic accountability. We inherited that machinery at independence and, astonishingly, kept it largely intact. The tool built to pacify a colony has been repurposed, with barely a redesign, to govern a republic. It should trouble us deeply that a structure engineered to keep a colonized people in check is now one of the principal reasons that Pakistan’s most marginalized regions distrust their own government. So when the conversation turns, as it periodically does, to creating new administrative units — carving out new divisions, new districts, new tiers of provincial machinery — as the answer to Balochistan’s or KPK’s grievances, I feel obligated to push back, loudly. Before we draw a single new administrative boundary, we must confront the core disease, not multiply its symptoms. New units will not dilute bureaucratic power; they will replicate it. Every new administrative tier is another office, another set of discretionary signatures, another opportunity for the same colonial-era logic of gatekeeping to entrench itself further. For the aggrieved citizen in Turbat or Muzaffarabad or Bannu, a new secretariat is not relief. It is simply a new address for the same unaccountable authority. We would be handing the bureaucracy — an institution that has shown a consistent instinct for self-preservation — more territory to govern, not less power to abuse. Real relief requires shrinking the space in which discretion operates unchecked, not expanding the number of desks where it can be exercised. This is precisely why the moment for AI-enabled local governance has arrived, and why Pakistan can no longer afford to treat it as a distant aspiration. Around the world, and notably across India, urban local bodies and municipalities are moving beyond basic digitization toward what might be called algorithms of accountability — systems purpose-built to increase transparency, limit human discretion where it invites abuse, and protect citizen data. These frameworks generally rest on a few consistent pillars: ensuring that automated public decisions on things like welfare disbursement or tax assessment can be audited and challenged rather than buried in a file; protecting citizen data through clear legal safeguards; requiring any private vendor supplying government technology to disclose how its systems work; and actively checking automated tools for bias against marginalized communities. The Indian experience offers concrete, transferable lessons. Municipal bodies in cities like Delhi and Bengaluru now use satellite imagery and mapping systems to flag unauthorized construction and property tax discrepancies — but critically, they pair this with a human-verification step, so an algorithm’s flag is only ever an advisory alert, not a final punishment, creating a documented trail a citizen can actually contest. States such as Telangana and Maharashtra have deployed multilingual citizen chatbots to handle civic complaints, built with data-masking safeguards that strip personal information before it ever touches a broader system. Smart-city command centers in Surat and Pune operate under strict data retention rules, so surveillance footage is automatically deleted unless tied to an active investigation, preventing the machinery from becoming a permanent surveillance state. And where facial-recognition attendance systems have been used to track municipal staff, unions pushed successfully for dispute mechanisms so that a technical glitch never costs a worker their wages. None of these systems eliminate human judgment. What they eliminate is unaccountable, invisible, discretionary human judgment — the exact currency the colonial bureaucracy was built to trade in. That is the reform Pakistan needs at the local government level: not another administrative layer, but a transparent, auditable, citizen-facing system that makes it structurally difficult for a project to vanish between sanction and delivery, and structurally easy for a citizen in the

Development is the process of creating lasting improvements in the lives of people by addressing their genuine social, economic, and public needs and not merely constructing new infrastructure, completing projects, impressive photographs, or utilising the allocated public funds. In a true sense, the real measure of development is whether the real problem has been solved, and whether the interventions have created sustainable public value and an evident change in social or economic conditions of the society. A project should begin with a clearly defined problem and public need. Its vision, goals, activities, and measurable indicators should follow the problem. In professional project management practices, all these elements are recorded in the planning and design phase. In Pakistan, we have mastered the art of reporting these elements without achieving any meaningful results. Imagine a public park surrounded by a steel fence. Children and families using the park are visible from the road. If funds are available and privacy is the genuine concern, the executing agency can add steel sheets, plant trees, or use temporary screens. Each solution is inexpensive and retains the existing structure. However, if the focus is primarily on expenditure, the agency may remove the functioning fence and replace it with a new brick wall. This may have a longer life, but is not necessarily the most economical or appropriate solution. Considering Pakistan’s fragile economic outlook, many major development projects are financed through foreign loans. Such funds are eventually repaid, often with interest. Money spent on an unnecessary intervention is no longer available for genuine public need. This is a recurring weakness in Pakistan, where success is measured by the money spent, not by the effectiveness of the solution. This recalls Peter Drucker’s observation. “There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.” The continued existence of infrastructure built during the Mughal and British periods is in contrast with contemporary projects, which deteriorate within years. This might be a romantic comparison, influenced by the fact that we see only the structures that survived, but durability and long-term public value are not central to our project culture. The same mindset is evident in urban beautification schemes. Imagine a local government installs a 15-foot-high statue. The project is indeed beautiful and will produce attractive photographs for official reports, but if the same statue is mounted on thoughtfully designed columns, the shaded seating can be utilised by daily wage workers who gather at bus stops, on footpaths, and in other public spaces because no designated facility is available. This is not an encroachment issue, but a planning failure. Planners and designers should use one intervention to achieve multiple objectives. Imagine a decades-old roundabout, with a working fountain surrounded by grass. During hot afternoons, labourers and children visit the site to cool themselves in the fountain’s spray. Officials might consider this behaviour undesirable and wish to block access. They can barricade it through small trees or shrubs, but the typical response will be to uproot the entire structure, construct a new fountain, and replace the grass with artificial green carpet. The public behaviour may reflect the unavailability of affordable recreational areas or public bathing facilities. Yet, the official solution destroys a functioning public asset, removes a natural green area, and spends substantial funds without addressing the underlying need. Needs assessment appears in project reports, but they are rarely conducted with sufficient depth. Imagine a posh housing society, where tubewells were eventually replaced by private borewells. Residents have spent a considerable amount to arrange their own water supply. Now, if any government agency has received funds for water distribution, they should spend it in areas where the people are still digging borewells or have no access to clean drinking water. However, again the typical response will be to spend millions in this posh area, where households have already arranged their own water supply. The fall of the water table is the real problem, which in this case will persist after spending millions. Pakistan has an extensive planning structure, which includes the federal and provincial bodies, planning departments in government organizations, consultants, and project management units. In 2025-26 alone, the National Economic Council approved the national development portfolio of 4.224 trillion. Such substantial expenditure should produce visible and lasting improvement in people live. The problem, therefore, is not insufficient funding, but how projects are identified, designed, approved, and evaluated. The same problem is visible in education, health, and administrative projects. Consider a basic health unit or education facility with a leaking roof. The available funds should be directed to fix the roof. However, funds are allocated to boundary wall, new signage, and in some cases, for an entirely new building. Similarly, for decade, government departments are trying to digitise their operations. For a quick solution, these departments procure specialised softwares, which has high licensing costs, and inadequate training mechanisms. After years of implementation, enforcement, and expenditure, the same departments revert to paper files or to a new software. The first step should be, to strengthen the capacity of all relevant staff in problem identification and root cause analysis. Every project initiation document should clearly identify the problem, public need, examine alternatives, and link the proposed intervention to public value. These elements should always be in quantifiable terms. Moreover, the project indicators should measure the extent to which the problem is solved and the post-completion evaluation should validate the visualized public benefits. Institutions move energetically, spend heavily, and report extensively, but bypass the original problem. Pakistan does not simply need more projects; it needs projects to solve problems; it needs interventions that respond to genuine needs, preserve what already works, and provide sustainable public value. The true measure should not be the amount spent but the resolution of the problem. Unless problem-solving becomes central to planning and evaluation, fund utilisation will continue to be mistaken for development and detour away from progress we seek. Writers  Dr. Sikandar Bilal Khattak  Academician with Research Interest in Sustainable Systems Can be

We Were Forewarned, Then Why Are We Drowning, and What Lies Ahead In March, when the glaciers were shedding their winter whites too early and the northern valleys stood bare against a sky that should have held snow, I wrote that the coming monsoon would test us. The National Disaster Management Authority had foreseen rains twenty-two to twenty-six percent heavier than the floods that killed more than a thousand souls the year before. Our embankments were still broken. Our protocols were still asleep. It is late July now. The test has begun. Riverine area dwellers stand at the edge of swollen rivers, watching the water turn from brown to something near black, carrying the upstream soil. There is that familiar murmur of disbelief from government corridors—the same soft gasp that follows every flood, as if the water had not been whispering its arrival for months. But the water does not whisper to those who will not bend their ear. It speaks in the language of saturated earth, and we have heard it before. We have simply chosen, again and again, not to listen. We were forewarned by the agencies. We were forewarned by the science. And we were forewarned by the very land beneath our feet—the old, patient land that absorbed until it could absorb no more, and is now quietly drowning. Yet when the skies opened, we were caught unprepared. And the heavy heart of Bhadoon is still to come. What the Old Farmers Knew For generations, the farmers of the Indus Basin have spoken of Sawan and Bhadoon not as months, but as temperaments. Sawan, the early monsoon of July and mid-August, is the gentle guest who fills the earthen pot. Bhadoon, the late monsoon of August and September, is the guest who arrives heavy with sorrow, and finds the door already swollen shut. There is an old understanding in the villages of Punjab and Sindh: if Sawan has been generous—if the rains have fallen day after day without rest—then Bhadoon must be received with care. Not because Bhadoon brings more rain, but because the earth, by the time Bhadoon arrives, has already absorbed all it can hold. The soil is no longer soil. It is a clay pot filled to the lip, trembling at the brim. The next drop does not nourish. It overflows. Modern science calls this Antecedent Moisture Condition. During a gentle Sawan, the land breathes; the rivers rise slowly, politely. But when the early rains come without pause, the land stops breathing. Its lungs fill with water. What was once a sponge becomes something heavy, something waiting. In dry years, only a fraction of rainfall becomes dangerous runoff. But once the soil is saturated, eighty to ninety-five percent of every new drop becomes immediate floodwater. The sponge has no choice. It must release what it cannot hold. It weeps. Nature does not betray us. It simply does what it has always done. It is we who forget the earth, who build our homes upon its floodplains and then feign surprise when the water remembers its ancient path home. The Water Remembers This is not a new story. The water has told it before, and it has told it gently, and we have not listened. In 1955, the Ravi rose with a roar that split the embankments of Lahore’s periphery. The river had been primed for weeks—day after day of July and August rain had filled the soil until the ground could no longer hold the September deluge. The peak at Madhopur was the highest ever recorded. The city woke to find its edges softened, dissolved, gone. In 1992, the same priming filled Mangla and Tarbela to their brims by mid-August. When the early September rains came, Tarbela’s flood-peak reduction capacity collapsed from thirty percent to two percent. The rest surged into the lower plains, uninvited and sorrowful. The engineers knew what was coming. The farmers had only the sound of the river changing pitch—a sound every old farmer knows, a sound that means it is time to gather the children and climb. In 2022, Sindh became an inland sea. Nearly a meter of rain fell on ground that was already thirty percent wetter than it should have been. The water had nowhere to go but into homes, into fields, into the places where people had built their lives on the quiet assumption that the land would always absorb their troubles. The years that followed did not forgive us. In 2023, the Chenab and Jhelum catchments drank until they were full, and when Bhadoon came heavy in September, communities that had barely recovered from 2022 found themselves underwater again. In 2024, the same quiet sorrow played across Sindh and Balochistan—early rains primed the soil, late rains broke the banks, and the katcha communities woke to find their world softened and dissolved. These were not catastrophes on the scale of 2022, but gentle, persistent reminders that the mechanism does not rest, and that a loaded sponge does not care whether the year is famous or forgotten. Then came 2025. The NDMA’s own reports confirmed what the old farmers could have recited without a single instrument: the rain fell on ground that was already wet. The system had no buffer, no forgiveness, no room for error. One thousand and thirty-seven people died. More than two hundred and seventy-five of them were children. Nearly seven million were affected. Three million displaced. Two hundred and twenty-nine thousand, seven hundred and sixty-three homes damaged or destroyed. These are not estimates. These are the quiet names and numbers of a nation that has grown accustomed to forgetting. Now, in 2026, the NDMA warns of an even more intense monsoon. The early snowmelt has already fed the rivers before the clouds even gathered. The reservoirs are high. The soil is full. The sponge is loaded. And Bhadoon has not yet arrived. The Quiet After the Warning The tragedy of this year is not that we did not know. It is that