Ballon d’Or season has begun – and Kylian Mbappe, not Vinicius Jr, is Real Madrid’s current frontrunner

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The Frenchman has found his feet at the Bernabeu and looks best equipped to challenge the likes of Mohamed Salah and Raphinha for the Golden Ball

The Ballon d’Or is bad for football. There is simply no way that an individual honour should have attained such importance within a team sport. The hope was that it would provoke less outrage after the end of the Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo rivalry responsible for its disproportionate level of popularity – but no such luck there.

Ballon d'Or season has begun - and Kylian Mbappe, not Vinicius Jr, is Real Madrid's leading contender right now | Goal.com

Last year’s ceremony was, in fact, the most farcical and bewildering yet, with Real Madrid refusing to turn up after learning that their star winger Vincius Jr had been pipped to top spot on the podium by Rodri. The Manchester City and Spain midfielder was a most worthy winner, but Vinicius and his employers couldn’t even bring themselves to attend Rodri’s arguably overdue coronation as the best player in the world, making their b*tching and moaning about a lack of respect look like the height of unintentional irony.

It was a surprisingly pathetic display of petulance from a player that has earned so many admirers around the world for his at-times one-man fight against racism in Spain – but a predictably petty show of entitlement from the most conceited club in football.

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    • Masters of Ballon d’Or campaigns

      Because Madrid really do believe that the Ballon d’Or, much like the European Cup, effectively belongs to them. As Pascal Ferre, the former director of France Football, admitted back in 2022, Madrid are the masters of manipulating Ballon d’Or voters.

      “Florentino Perez orchestrates the campaigns well,” he told the EFE Agency. “There are machines like Real Madrid that are very strong. Their intelligence is that they support a single player. For years it was Cristiano Ronaldo, then Karim Benzema. That prevents the votes from being dispersed. So, they know how this works. It’s no coincidence if it’s the club that has won it the most times.”

      In that context, it will be interesting to see how Perez approaches this year’s Ballon d’Or vote, as Madrid made a mess of last year’s campaign and Vinicius has since been joined at Santiago Bernabeu by Kylian Mbappe, who has made no secret of his desire to win the trophy and is belatedly starting to look like a potential winner.

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      Vinicius the voting victim

      There’s no denying that Madrid having three strong contenders for the 2024 Ballon d’Or counted against Vinicius, who finished just 51 points behind Rodri (1170). Remember, midfielder Jude Bellingham took third with an impressive 917 points, while right-back Dani Carvajal claimed fourth ahead of Erling Haaland. However, Toni Kroos also picked up 291 points to sneak into the top 10 (291), while Federico Valverde came home 17th (58) and Antonio Rudiger 22nd (13).

      At the end of the day, you don’t win a Liga-and-Champions League double without several players performing at their top of the game, and that effectively split the Madrid vote. Had Vinicius even picked up Valverde’s points, he would have finished first.

      One could also easily argue, though, that Madrid backed the wrong horse – and would have been better throwing their weight behind Carvajal, given he also won the European Championship with Spain after Vinicius had flopped horribly for Brazil at the Copa America.

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      Rodri win no robbery

      Of course, right-backs don’t win the Ballon d’Or (sorry, Trent!), so it was not in the least bit surprising that Madrid threw their support behind Vinicius – particularly as Bellingham undeniably faded during the business end of the season. The Brazil international was brilliant for Los Blancos during their Champions League campaign, popping up with big goals in the knockout phase, most notably against Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.

      The idea that he was somehow robbed was lunacy, though. We’re not talking Franck Ribery in 2013 or Thierry Henry in 2004 here. Vinicius had a fine campaign, but he was only directly involved in 33 goals in all competitions for Madrid – which put him joint-16th on the overall standings across Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues, behind the likes of Lois Openda and Ollie Watkins.

      Furthermore, it’s a tally that’s already been surpassed this season by Robert Lewandowski (35), Omar Marmoush (36), Raphinha and Harry Kane (both 37), and Mohamed Salah (47) – and we’ve not even reached the end of February.

    • Liverpool FC v Real Madrid - UEFA Champions League Final 2021/22

      Time to shine again

      It’s clear, then, that Vinicius is going to have to come alive again in the knockout stages of the Champions League if he is to win this year’s Ballon d’Or – particularly as the tournament will carry more weight than last year. With no major international tournaments to come this summer, and the expanded Club World Cup of questionable value, it feels inevitable that the Ballon d’Or winner will be provided by the team that conquers Europe.

      Vinicius is obviously no stranger to success in the Champions League. As well as stepping up last season, he also famously netted the winner against Liverpool in the 2022 final. Something similar in 2025 would go a long way towards helping him realise his Ballon d’Or dream – and he’s off to a decent start, as it was Vinicius’ late charge that led to Bellingham netting the winner in last week’s play-off first-leg win over Manchester City at the Etihad.

    • Manchester City v Real Madrid C.F. - UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Knockout Play-off First Leg

      Bellingham’s belated bid

      Of course, Bellingham himself cannot be ruled out of the running for the Ballon d’Or. After a slow start to the season – which was no doubt connected to a serious Euro 2024 hangover – the England international looks a lot better than he did at this point last year.

      Bellingham found his goal-scoring touch in La Liga in the lead-up to Christmas and has also netted in his last two Champions League outings. He may need to do a better job keeping his mouth shut on the field to avoid any potentially costly suspensions, but if he does manage to focus solely on letting his football do the talking for him, he could easily make a compelling case to be considered the top talent in the game today.

      Bellingham is a thrilling talent capable of decisive moments of magic. Perhaps more importantly, he’s got the kind of profile and personality that always appeals to the notoriously inconsistent and fickle France Football voters.

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      Mbappe now Madrid’s main main?

      Mbappe’s popularity may have taken a significant dip in his homeland over the past year or so – particularly as it’s even been reported that he’s asked to play only in important internationals for Les Bleus so that he can focus on winning the Champions League and Ballon d’Or with Madrid. The France forward knows full well that the two trophies so often go hand in hand and he’s never hidden his desire to lift both. Indeed, he reiterated his twin goals as recently as December and, two months on, they actually look realistic – which was not the case at the start of the season.

      For arguably the first time in his career, Mbappe looked mentally and physically fragile during the first few months of his Madrid career, as if he were bereft of not only energy but also self-belief – which was staggering to see from a player that has always carried himself with such a swagger. However, after recovering from what he called a post-Euros “collapse”, it’s clear that his confidence is back – and so too is the old Mbappe, who has struck 14 times in his last 16 appearances in all competitions.

      As it stands, then, it is Mbappe who is looking more like Madrid’s leading Ballon d’Or candidate – not Vinicius – but everything could change in the coming months. The Champions League is highly likely to prove decisive in this year’s race to finish first, which should also include Salah, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, and while this is not an accolade that should really matter very much in the grand scheme of things, at the Bernabeu it really, really does.

      Make no mistake about it: Madrid will be determined to not only retain their European crown this year – but reclaim their Ballon d’Or too.

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